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. 2022 May 3;23:100462. doi: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100462

Figure 2.

Fig 2

Model fit (blue lines) to annually reported data (black dots) of diagnosed but untreated individuals in CD4 >=500 cells/μL, CD4 350–499 cells/μL, CD4 200–349 cells/μL and CD4 <200 cells/μL (a–d), treated individuals in CD4 >=500 cells/μL, CD4 350–499 cells/μL, CD4 200–349 cells/μL and CD4 <200 cells/μL (e–h), annual HIV-related deaths among treated MSM (i), total number of HIV infections on treatment (j) and the prevalence of the transmitted drug-resistance (k) and acquired drug-resistance (l). Dashed vertical black lines show rollout of PrEP starting in 2022. Right side of the dash line is the model predictions for eight different PrEP coverage levels, with or without expanded ART (Fig. S1). PrEP, pre-exposure prophylaxis; ART, antiretroviral therapy; MSM, men who have sex with men.