Table 1:

Intervention effect sizes and baseline and target coverage by intervention

	Intervention	Coverage definition	Affected outcome	Effect size	Baseline coverage	Target coverage
1	Primary prevention (treatment of group A streptococcal pharyngitis, awareness raising, strengthening supply chains, provider training)	Percentage of group A streptococcal pharyngitis cases treated in ages 5–15 years	ARF and all subsequent health states	68% (52–79)	15·0% (3·8)	40%
2a	Secondary prevention (prophylactic penicillin after ARF with carditis—10 years or until age 20 years, whichever longer)	Percentage of people with ARF treated with prophylactic penicillin	ARF and all subsequent health states	55% (8–78)	5·0% (1·3)	40%
2b	Secondary prevention (prophylactic penicillin in asymptomatic RHD)	Percentage of people with asymptomatic RHD treated with prophylactic penicillin	Severe RHD and all subsequent health states	55% (7–78)	5·0% (1·3)	40%
3	Platforms for heart failure management and anticoagulation, including management during pregnancy	Percentage of people with heart failure from RHD having heart failure medically managed	Deaths or prevalence of people with severe RHD or RHD post-valve surgery	60% (30–80)*	8·0% (2·0)	55%
4	Cardiac surgery and postoperative care	Percentage of people with heart failure from RHD aged 10–40 years receiving cardiac surgery and postoperative care	Deaths or prevalence of people with severe RHD or RHD post-valve surgery	85% (70–92)†	5·0% (1·3)	25%
5	Evaluation and counselling on family planning for women of reproductive age‡	Percentage of women of reproductive age with RHD desiring contraceptive method who have access	Severe RHD and all subsequent health states	··	45·0% (5·0)	75%

Data are % reduction (95% uncertainty interval), % (SD), or %. ARF=acute rheumatic fever. RHD=rheumatic heart disease.

^*Mortality risk reduction assumed to last 4 years, because heart failure management is not curative.

^†Initial 3% operative mortality assumed.

^‡Intervention included here because of the risk that RHD poses during pregnancy, but effects not modelled. References for and descriptions of coverage estimates and effect sizes are given in the appendix (pp 22, 28). 15% reduction in RHD incidence assumed over the period from factors related to living conditions—reductions distributed in pharyngitis and ARF parameters (appendix p 11). Postoperative management coverage assumed 100% among people who have received surgeries (assumed that surgeries not done without care in place for long-term management).