Figure 4.

Prior beliefs, prior uncertainty, uncertainty tolerance, and decision noise as a function of age. Each dot represents one individual’s score. Note that a uniform prior corresponds to a prior uncertainty of 0.289, which is the width of the beta distribution for uniform priors. This thereby creates an upper bound for the prior uncertainty. Uncertainty tolerance has the same upper bound as prior uncertainty, as they both reflect the width of the belief distribution. Lower prior uncertainty values reflect a more certain prior. The robust linear regression method with a linear and quadratic age term was used to generate the fit lines.