Table 1.
The prediction of the risk countries of African swine fever virus (ASFV) infection in wild boar in Asia, by country until January 2021.
| Country | Report of ASFV infection | Surface (km2) | Potential infected surface (km2) | Potential infected area (%) | Maximum risk value | Sum of risk values | Risk category |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Reported | 9,596,961.1 | 7,520,128.9 | 78.4 | 0.99 | 3,049.6 | High |
| Myanmar | Reported | 749,307.04 | 689,307.0 | 92.0 | 0.94 | 532.6 | Medium |
| Far east Russia | Reported | 6,013,593.1 | 3,013,593.0 | 50.1 | 0.61 | 459.8 | Medium |
| Thailand | Not reporteda | 579,863.5 | 479,863.5 | 82.8 | 1 | 447.3 | Medium |
| Vietnam | Reported | 389,516.9 | 369,517.0 | 94.9 | 1 | 330.0 | Medium |
| Laos | Reported | 267,765.5 | 267,765.5 | 100 | 1 | 310.5 | Medium |
| Cambodia | Reported | 220,334.4 | 219,334.4 | 99.5 | 0.97 | 170.6 | Medium |
| Philippines | Reported | 377,500.1 | 277,500.0 | 73.5 | 1 | 168.1 | Medium |
| Mongolia | Reported | 1,564,110.1 | 1,233,060.4 | 78.8 | 0.43 | 90.2 | Low |
| India | Reported | 3,402,784.2 | 402,784.1 | 11.8 | 0.64 | 73.9 | Low |
| North Korea | Reported | 120,540.1 | 108,503.5 | 90.0 | 0.61 | 65.2 | Low |
| South Korea | Reported | 100,210.2 | 82,904.4 | 82.7 | 0.52 | 28.1 | Low |
| Kazakhstan | Not reported | 2,724,900.1 | 272,290.8 | 10.0 | 0.21 | 26.2 | Low |
| Bangladesh | Not reported | 149,027.2 | 141,027.1 | 94.6 | 0.39 | 18.2 | Low |
| Kyrgyzstan | Not reported | 181,945.9 | 161,945.9 | 89.0 | 0.10 | 6.7 | Low |
| Bhutan | Not reporteda | 40,150.2 | 40,150.0 | 100 | 0.37 | 4.8 | Low |
| Nepal | Not reported | 147,181.1 | 21,700.0 | 14.7 | 0.22 | 2.0 | Low |
| Pakistan | Not reported | 883,610.1 | 83,610.0 | 9.5 | 0.10 | 1.8 | Low |
| Indonesia | Reported | 3,031,840.2 | 31,840.0 | 1.1 | 0.28 | 1.0 | Low |
| Tajikistan | Not reported | 143,100.2 | 61,230.0 | 42.8 | 0.10 | 0.7 | Low |
| Uzbekistan | Not reported | 447,400.1 | 10,152.6 | 2.3 | 0.10 | 0.6 | Low |
| Macao | Not reported | 40 | 10.0 | 25 | 0.57 | 0.6 | Low |
| Timor-Leste | Reported | 29,800 | 19,800.0 | 66.4 | 0.04 | 0.3 | Low |
| Afghanistan | Not reported | 652,864 | 10,942.1 | 1.7 | 0.05 | 0.25 | Low |
| Hong Kong | Reported | 1,230 | 1,200.0 | 97.6 | 0.23 | 0.23 | Low |
| Malaysiab | Not reporteda | 329,847 | - | - | - | - | - |
The risk classification is shown in three categories: high, medium, and low. Asian countries not included in this table have no results and should be considered as “No risk of AFS natural spread due to wild boar to date”.
a
Countries that reported ASFV infection after the period of study.
b
Although Malaysia was included in the study area, Malaysia did not show risk in our model. The introduction of ASF in Malaysia by wild boar movements is unlikely based on our available data.