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. 2022 Jan 1;27(3):1611–1617. doi: 10.1038/s41380-021-01402-9

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 4 — Top panel: the out-of-samples estimate of Perseverative Thinking Questionnaire (PTQ) scores for each subject (red line) with 90% confidence interval (shaded area). The dashed orange line is the actual group effect. Bottom: The actual subject effect plotted against the expected value of the estimated subject effect. Participant PTQ scores can be reliably predicted based on their modulation of ventral MPFC-to-MD effective connectivity during cognitive restructuring (p = 0.029, r = 0.29).