Table 3.

Comparison of BeCaked and top-tier forecasting-specialized methods with 31-step forecast.

	BeCaked	ARIMA	Ridge	LASSO	SVR	DTR	RFR	GBR
Total infectious cases
$R^2$	0.99790	$-2.84161$	0.98777	$\mathbf{0.99907}$	$-18.11617$	$-2.84160$	$-2.99678$	$-2.84598$
MAPE	0.00509	0.23243	0.01346	$\mathbf{0.00112}$	0.62084	0.23243	0.23929	0.23262
Daily infectious cases
$R^2$	$\mathbf{0.98050}$	$-2.31481$	0.39289	0.92269	$-29.01740$	$-2.31481$	$-2.44266$	$-2.32188$
MAPE	0.01268	0.38969	0.03052	$\mathbf{0.00350}$	0.78887	0.38969	0.39887	0.38998
Recovered cases
$R^2$	$\mathbf{0.98784}$	$-3.07765$	0.76234	0.96656	$-13.46395$	$-3.07765$	$-3.24544$	$-3.08040$
MAPE	0.01869	0.29221	0.07195	$\mathbf{0.01153}$	0.64754	0.29221	0.30097	0.29236
Deceased cases
$R^2$	$\mathbf{0.98904}$	$-2.81195$	0.88473	0.53645	$-46.32486$	$-2.81195$	$-2.95304$	$-2.82239$
MAPE	$\mathbf{0}.00676$	0.13248	0.01988	0.04018	0.55858	0.13248	0.13594	0.13274

Best results are in [bold].