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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2023 May 1.
Published in final edited form as: J Am Geriatr Soc. 2021 Nov 26;70(5):1384–1393. doi: 10.1111/jgs.17583

TABLE 1.

2-year transition probabilities from five state model for cognitive status

Transition Intensive Standard Hazard Ratio
From To Overall Treatment Treatment (95% CI)
Normal Cognition MCI 4.3% (3.9%, 4.9%) 4.1% (3.6%, 4.6%) 4.6% (4.1%, 5.2%) 0.87 (0.79, 0.96)
Normal Cognition Probable Dementia 0.6% (0.5%, 0.9%) 0.6% (0.3%, 0.9%) 0.6% (0.5%, 0.9%) 1.26 (0.76, 2.09)
Normal Cognition Death 2.3% (2.0%, 2.7%) 2.2% (1.9%, 2.7%) 2.4% (2.0%, 2.9%) 0.96 (0.73, 1.25)
MCI Intermittent MCI 31.6% (28.9%, 34.5%) 32.8% (29.1%, 36.4%) 30.5% (27.2%, 34.0%) 1.04 (0.87, 1.25)
MCI Probable Dementia 5.9% (4.5%, 7.7%) 4.9% (3.4%, 7.0%) 6.9% (5.0%, 9.5%) 0.70 (0.46, 1.07)
MCI Death 10.0% (8.3%, 11.9%) 9.3% (7.1%, 12.1%) 10.5% (8.3%, 13.3%) 0.88 (0.62, 1.24)
Intermittent MCI MCI 25.1% (20.7%, 30.2%) 24.4% (18.4%, 31.5%) 25.6% (20.0%, 32.2%) 0.92 (0.59, 1.45)

CI denotes confidence interval and MCI Mild Cognitive Impairment. Estimates are from multistate survival model as shown in FIGURE 1. In SPRINT, 63% of follow-up was during the active intervention phase, the rest consisting of observational follow-up. Above estimates similarly assume 63% of 2-year interval consists of active intervention.