TABLE 2.
Estimated impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on circulation of non‐SARS‐CoV‐2 viruses in NYC
| Respiratory virus (sub)type | Cumulative incidence during the COVID‐19 period | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Observed | SARIMA model counterfactual estimates | SARIMAX model counterfactual estimates | ||||
| Modeled | % reduction | Modeled | % reduction | |||
| Adenovirus (Adv) | 360.33 | 1,061 (146, 2,185) | −66% (−84%, 147%) | 930 (114, 2,056) | −61% (−82%, 216%) | |
| Human endemic coronavirus (CoV) | CoV‐NL63 | 148.49 | 495 (25, 1,679) | −70% (−91%, 494%) | 363 (16, 1,516) | −59% (−90%, 828%) |
| CoV‐HKU | 124.09 | 246 (4, 975) | −50% (−87%, 3,002%) | 165 (7, 820) | −25% (−85%, 1,673%) | |
| CoV‐OC43 | 132.53 | 921 (505, 1,790) | −86% (−93%, −74%) | 504 (239, 1,247) | −74% (−89%, −45%) | |
| CoV‐229E | 78.36 | 675 (431, 1,125) | −88% (−93%, −82%) | 535 (336, 950) | −85% (−92%, −77%) | |
| Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV) | 154.72 | 1,278 (591, 2,197) | −88% (−93%, −74%) | 1,051 (512, 1,829) | −85% (−92%, −70%) | |
| Rhinovirus (RV) | 2709.14 | 7,045 (2,472, 11,837) | −62% (−77%, 10%) | 5414 (1,754, 9,398) | −50% (−71%, 54%) | |
| Parainfluenza (PIV) | PIV‐1 | 23.51 | 227 (23, 647) | −90% (−96%, 2%) | 68 (3, 396) | −65% (−94%, 684%) |
| PIV‐2 | 52.05 | 290 (122, 614) | −82% (−92%, −57%) | 242 (105, 534) | −78% (−90%, −50%) | |
| PIV‐3 | 85.25 | 862 (78, 2,558) | −90% (−97%, 9%) | 232 (2, 1,418) | −63% (−94%, 4,162%) | |
| PIV‐4 | 20.43 | 237 (50, 762) | −91% (−97%, −59%) | 189 (37, 735) | −89% (−97%, −45%) | |
| Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) | 250.3 | 1,814 (561, 4,205) | −86% (−94%, −55%) | 1,453 (519, 3,507) | −83% (−93%, −52%) | |
| Influenza (IV) | 258.09 | 2,924 (584, 10,831) | −91% (−98%, −56%) | 1,941 (424, 9,033) | −87% (−97%, −39%) | |
Note: Column “Observed” shows the scaled cumulative incidence as recorded during the COVID‐19 period (March 2020 to May 2021) for each virus (listed in column “Respiratory Virus (Sub)type”). The “Modeled” columns show model‐counterfactual estimates (mean and 95% prediction interval in parentheses) using the SARIMA or SARIMAX model (specified in the row above), and the “% Reduction” columns show estimated percent reduction (mean and 95% confidence interval) during the COVID‐19 pandemic period, per Equation 6. Significant reductions are bolded.