FIGURE 9.

Smoothing distributions for ${\lambda }_t$ and $z_t$ in December for Canterbury with and without weekend effects. Inclusion of weekend effects allows ${\lambda }_t$ to remain smooth over periodic decreases in the positive test count at weekends. Each $p(z_t|{\mathbf{y}}_{0:T})$ measures the strength of the weekend effect for day t; on the right we show these posterior distributions for Sunday $29\text{th}$ November and $6\text{th}$ December