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. 2022 Apr 23:10.1111/rssc.12557. Online ahead of print. doi: 10.1111/rssc.12557

FIGURE 14.

FIGURE 14

Example nowcasts p(xt|y0:T) for Bromley and Oldham made on the 13th of December and the 14th of December. The posterior is exactly the true count for times long in the past. For recent times where we don't trust the reports, there is uncertainty as captured by the posterior distribution. As new and updated data is reported, all nowcasts may be adjusted to account for this new information