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. 2022 May 18;12:8269. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-11706-7

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Visual representation of the theoretical model. An initial infection A potentially infects two other individuals, called B and C. (a) A successfully infects B and C. A gets tested upon experiencing symptoms, and isolates upon receiving a positive test result. This begins a process of contact tracing, through which C (but not B) is tested. B does not infect anyone else; the only person they potentially infect is immune. C infects two other people before being isolated. Once C is isolated, she does not come into contact with a potential infection outside the household, but still infects an individual in the same household. Individuals in the model may or may not be symptomatic, get tested, be contact traced, and they may isolate for a variety of reasons. (b) The infection tree summarises the “branching process” in the model, i.e. the first and second generation potential infections caused by A.