Figure 2: Prediction accuracy of single-discovery and multi-discovery polygenic prediction methods in simulations.

1% HapMap3 variants were randomly sampled as causal variants, which in aggregation explained 50% of phenotypic variation in each population. Causal variants were shared across populations with a cross-population genetic correlation of 0.7. 100K simulated EUR samples and 20K non-EUR (EAS or AFR) samples were used as the discovery dataset. Each bar shows the squared correlation (R²) between the simulated and predicted phenotypes for a polygenic prediction method in an independent testing dataset, averaged across 20 simulation replicates. Error bar indicates the standard deviation of R² across replicates. Prediction accuracy for each simulation replicate is overlaid on the bar plot.