Table 4.
Results from scenario modeling using the median and 95% confidence intervals
Scenario | Days to eradication | Attack rate | Total Infected | Infected residents | Infected staff | Hospitalizations | Deaths |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Introduction probability & testing frequencya | |||||||
High & 5-days | 11.22( 34.84,12.4)* | 0.19( 0.27, 0.11)* | 65.29( 91.41, 39.16)* | 37.5(− 54.66,− 20.34)* | − 27.79(− 37.08,− 18.49)* | − 12.95(− 21.63,− 4.26)* | − 2.07(− 3.48,− 0.66)* |
High & 3-days | 51.11( 75.06, 27.16)* | 0.29( 0.37, 0.21)* | 99.08( 125.56, 72.59)* | − 59.23(− 76.63,− 41.83)* | − 39.85(− 49.27,− 30.43)* | − 24.07(− 32.87,− 15.26)* | − 3.08(− 4.5,− 1.65)* |
Moderate & 5-days | 26.06( 36.14, 15.98)* | 0.12( 0.14, 0.1)* | 41.19( 49.4, 32.97)* | − 24.86(− 30.02,− 19.71)* | − 16.32(− 19.51,− 13.14)* | − 10.16(− 12.49,− 7.82)* | − 1.19(− 1.57,− 0.8)* |
Moderate & 3-days | 49.44( 59.81, 39.07)* | 0.17( 0.19, 0.14)* | 57.51( 65.96, 49.06)* | − 35.06(− 40.36,− 29.75)* | − 22.45(− 25.73,− 19.18)* | − 14.9(− 17.31,− 12.5)* | − 1.75(− 2.15,− 1.36)* |
Low & 5-days | 38.54( 65.84, 11.23)* | 0.16( 0.24, 0.07)* | 53.36( 83.49, 23.23)* | − 29.8(− 46.98,− 12.62)* | − 23.56(− 36.66,− 10.46)* | − 13.76(− 21.93,− 5.58)* | − 1.31(− 2.48,− 0.15)* |
Low & 3-days | 45.36( 72.66, 18.05)* | 0.16( 0.25, 0.07)* | 55.49( 85.62, 25.36)* | − 30.53(− 47.71,− 13.36)* | − 24.96(− 38.06,− 11.86)* | − 13.89(− 22.07,− 5.71)* | − 1.51(− 2.68,− 0.35)* |
Introduction probability & vaccine prioritization | |||||||
High & resident | 2.01( 3.61,7.62) | 0.01( 0.03,0.01) | 3.26( 10.11,3.59) | 6.79( 11.16, 2.43)* | 3.53(0.81,6.24)* | − 3.27(− 5.18,− 1.35)* | − 0.5(− 0.79,− 0.2)* |
High & staff | 5.1( 10.6, 0.4)* | 0.02( 0.04,0) | 6.18( 12.89,0.52) | 0.71( 4.99,3.57)* | − 5.47(− 8.13,− 2.82)* | − 0.81(− 2.68,1.07)* | − 0.19(− 0.49,0.1)* |
Moderate & resident | 5.22(0.88,9.57)* | 0( 0.01,0.01) | 0.06( 3.85,3.73) | 2.58( 4.87, 0.3)* | 2.53(0.89,4.16)* | 1.11(− 2.11,− 0.11)* | − 0.2(− 0.35,− 0.06)* |
Moderate & staff | 2( 6.89,2.9) | 0( 0.02,0.01) | 1.19( 5.58,3.2) | 2.02( 0.62,4.66) | 3.21( 5.12,− 1.31)* | 0.74(− 0.42,1.9) | − 0.05(− 0.22,0.12) |
Low & resident | 1.96( 3.52,7.45) | 0.01(0,0.03)* | 3.97( 0.8,8.75) | 0( 2.45,2.45) | 3.98(1.49,6.46)* | 0( 1.06,1.06) | 0.16(0,0.32) |
Low & staff | 6.36( 11.74, 0.99)* | 0.01( 0.02,0)* | 3.09( 7.77,1.59) | 1.05( 3.45,1.35) | − 2.04(− 4.48,0.4) | − 0.72(− 1.77,0.32) | 0.01(− 0.15,0.16) |
*Significant effect
aNo vaccination assumed