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. 2022 May 19;22:477. doi: 10.1186/s12879-022-07385-4

Table 4.

Results from scenario modeling using the median and 95% confidence intervals

Scenario Days to eradication Attack rate Total Infected Infected residents Infected staff Hospitalizations Deaths
Introduction probability & testing frequencya
 High & 5-days - 11.22(- 34.84,12.4)* - 0.19(- 0.27,- 0.11)* - 65.29(- 91.41,- 39.16)* - 37.5(− 54.66,− 20.34)* − 27.79(− 37.08,− 18.49)* − 12.95(− 21.63,− 4.26)* − 2.07(− 3.48,− 0.66)*
 High & 3-days - 51.11(- 75.06,- 27.16)* - 0.29(- 0.37,- 0.21)* - 99.08(- 125.56,- 72.59)* − 59.23(− 76.63,− 41.83)* − 39.85(− 49.27,− 30.43)* − 24.07(− 32.87,− 15.26)* − 3.08(− 4.5,− 1.65)*
 Moderate & 5-days - 26.06(- 36.14,- 15.98)* - 0.12(- 0.14,- 0.1)* - 41.19(- 49.4,- 32.97)* − 24.86(− 30.02,− 19.71)* − 16.32(− 19.51,− 13.14)* − 10.16(− 12.49,− 7.82)* − 1.19(− 1.57,− 0.8)*
 Moderate & 3-days - 49.44(- 59.81,- 39.07)* - 0.17(- 0.19,- 0.14)* - 57.51(- 65.96,- 49.06)* − 35.06(− 40.36,− 29.75)* − 22.45(− 25.73,− 19.18)* − 14.9(− 17.31,− 12.5)* − 1.75(− 2.15,− 1.36)*
 Low & 5-days - 38.54(- 65.84,- 11.23)* - 0.16(- 0.24,- 0.07)* - 53.36(- 83.49,- 23.23)* − 29.8(− 46.98,− 12.62)* − 23.56(− 36.66,− 10.46)* − 13.76(− 21.93,− 5.58)* − 1.31(− 2.48,− 0.15)*
 Low & 3-days - 45.36(- 72.66,- 18.05)* - 0.16(- 0.25,- 0.07)* - 55.49(- 85.62,- 25.36)* − 30.53(− 47.71,− 13.36)* − 24.96(− 38.06,− 11.86)* − 13.89(− 22.07,− 5.71)* − 1.51(− 2.68,− 0.35)*
Introduction probability & vaccine prioritization
 High & resident 2.01(- 3.61,7.62) - 0.01(- 0.03,0.01) - 3.26(- 10.11,3.59) - 6.79(- 11.16,- 2.43)* 3.53(0.81,6.24)* − 3.27(− 5.18,− 1.35)* − 0.5(− 0.79,− 0.2)*
 High & staff - 5.1(- 10.6, - 0.4)* - 0.02(- 0.04,0) - 6.18(- 12.89,0.52) - 0.71(- 4.99,3.57)* − 5.47(− 8.13,− 2.82)* − 0.81(− 2.68,1.07)* − 0.19(− 0.49,0.1)*
 Moderate & resident 5.22(0.88,9.57)* 0(- 0.01,0.01) - 0.06(- 3.85,3.73) - 2.58(- 4.87,- 0.3)* 2.53(0.89,4.16)* - 1.11(− 2.11,− 0.11)* − 0.2(− 0.35,− 0.06)*
 Moderate & staff - 2(- 6.89,2.9) 0(- 0.02,0.01) - 1.19(- 5.58,3.2) 2.02(- 0.62,4.66) - 3.21(- 5.12,− 1.31)* 0.74(− 0.42,1.9) − 0.05(− 0.22,0.12)
 Low & resident 1.96(- 3.52,7.45) 0.01(0,0.03)* 3.97(- 0.8,8.75) 0(- 2.45,2.45) 3.98(1.49,6.46)* 0(- 1.06,1.06) 0.16(0,0.32)
 Low & staff - 6.36(- 11.74,- 0.99)* - 0.01(- 0.02,0)* - 3.09(- 7.77,1.59) - 1.05(- 3.45,1.35) − 2.04(− 4.48,0.4) − 0.72(− 1.77,0.32) 0.01(− 0.15,0.16)

*Significant effect

aNo vaccination assumed

HHS Vulnerability Disclosure