Table 4.

Results from scenario modeling using the median and 95% confidence intervals

Scenario	Days to eradication	Attack rate	Total Infected	Infected residents	Infected staff	Hospitalizations	Deaths
Introduction probability & testing frequencya
High & 5-days	$-$ 11.22($-$ 34.84,12.4)*	$-$ 0.19($-$ 0.27,$-$ 0.11)*	$-$ 65.29($-$ 91.41,$-$ 39.16)*	$-$ 37.5(− 54.66,− 20.34)*	− 27.79(− 37.08,− 18.49)*	− 12.95(− 21.63,− 4.26)*	− 2.07(− 3.48,− 0.66)*
High & 3-days	$-$ 51.11($-$ 75.06,$-$ 27.16)*	$-$ 0.29($-$ 0.37,$-$ 0.21)*	$-$ 99.08($-$ 125.56,$-$ 72.59)*	− 59.23(− 76.63,− 41.83)*	− 39.85(− 49.27,− 30.43)*	− 24.07(− 32.87,− 15.26)*	− 3.08(− 4.5,− 1.65)*
Moderate & 5-days	$-$ 26.06($-$ 36.14,$-$ 15.98)*	$-$ 0.12($-$ 0.14,$-$ 0.1)*	$-$ 41.19($-$ 49.4,$-$ 32.97)*	− 24.86(− 30.02,− 19.71)*	− 16.32(− 19.51,− 13.14)*	− 10.16(− 12.49,− 7.82)*	− 1.19(− 1.57,− 0.8)*
Moderate & 3-days	$-$ 49.44($-$ 59.81,$-$ 39.07)*	$-$ 0.17($-$ 0.19,$-$ 0.14)*	$-$ 57.51($-$ 65.96,$-$ 49.06)*	− 35.06(− 40.36,− 29.75)*	− 22.45(− 25.73,− 19.18)*	− 14.9(− 17.31,− 12.5)*	− 1.75(− 2.15,− 1.36)*
Low & 5-days	$-$ 38.54($-$ 65.84,$-$ 11.23)*	$-$ 0.16($-$ 0.24,$-$ 0.07)*	$-$ 53.36($-$ 83.49,$-$ 23.23)*	− 29.8(− 46.98,− 12.62)*	− 23.56(− 36.66,− 10.46)*	− 13.76(− 21.93,− 5.58)*	− 1.31(− 2.48,− 0.15)*
Low & 3-days	$-$ 45.36($-$ 72.66,$-$ 18.05)*	$-$ 0.16($-$ 0.25,$-$ 0.07)*	$-$ 55.49($-$ 85.62,$-$ 25.36)*	− 30.53(− 47.71,− 13.36)*	− 24.96(− 38.06,− 11.86)*	− 13.89(− 22.07,− 5.71)*	− 1.51(− 2.68,− 0.35)*
Introduction probability & vaccine prioritization
High & resident	2.01($-$ 3.61,7.62)	$-$ 0.01($-$ 0.03,0.01)	$-$ 3.26($-$ 10.11,3.59)	$-$ 6.79($-$ 11.16,$-$ 2.43)*	3.53(0.81,6.24)*	− 3.27(− 5.18,− 1.35)*	− 0.5(− 0.79,− 0.2)*
High & staff	$-$ 5.1($-$ 10.6, $-$ 0.4)*	$-$ 0.02($-$ 0.04,0)	$-$ 6.18($-$ 12.89,0.52)	$-$ 0.71($-$ 4.99,3.57)*	− 5.47(− 8.13,− 2.82)*	− 0.81(− 2.68,1.07)*	− 0.19(− 0.49,0.1)*
Moderate & resident	5.22(0.88,9.57)*	0($-$ 0.01,0.01)	$-$ 0.06($-$ 3.85,3.73)	$-$ 2.58($-$ 4.87,$-$ 0.3)*	2.53(0.89,4.16)*	$-$ 1.11(− 2.11,− 0.11)*	− 0.2(− 0.35,− 0.06)*
Moderate & staff	$-$ 2($-$ 6.89,2.9)	0($-$ 0.02,0.01)	$-$ 1.19($-$ 5.58,3.2)	2.02($-$ 0.62,4.66)	$-$ 3.21($-$ 5.12,− 1.31)*	0.74(− 0.42,1.9)	− 0.05(− 0.22,0.12)
Low & resident	1.96($-$ 3.52,7.45)	0.01(0,0.03)*	3.97($-$ 0.8,8.75)	0($-$ 2.45,2.45)	3.98(1.49,6.46)*	0($-$ 1.06,1.06)	0.16(0,0.32)
Low & staff	$-$ 6.36($-$ 11.74,$-$ 0.99)*	$-$ 0.01($-$ 0.02,0)*	$-$ 3.09($-$ 7.77,1.59)	$-$ 1.05($-$ 3.45,1.35)	− 2.04(− 4.48,0.4)	− 0.72(− 1.77,0.32)	0.01(− 0.15,0.16)

*Significant effect

^aNo vaccination assumed