Table 3. Parameters values for the baseline scenario correspond to the posterior median value βbase = 0.31, ωbase = 0.12, λv1 = 0.00598, λv2 = 0.032; β = 0.4, 0.5, and ω = 0.3, 0.5 were selected according to historical data in CA (see S6 Fig in S1 File).
| Vaccination Rate Assumptions | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current rate maintained | Current rate reduced by 30% | Current rate increased by 30% | Current rate maintained | Current rate reduced by 30% | Current rate increased by 30% | |
| Parameters | Increase or prevention percentage in cases 15 days after opening | Increase or prevention percentage in deaths 15 days after opening | ||||
| βbase = 0.31 | 11429* | 35.0 | -26.1 | 429* | 21.6 | -17.9 |
| β1 = 0.4 | 21.8 | 65.7 | -10.1 | 4.4 | 27.8 | -14.6 |
| β2 = 0.5 | 48.5 | 103.4 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 36.8 | -10.8 |
| ωbase = 0.12 | 9829* | 34.0 | -25.0 | 402* | 23.5 | -16.4 |
| ω1 = 0.3 | 51.5 | 90.5 | 22.7 | 12.3 | 35.8 | -5.1 |
| ω2 = 0.5 | 68.9 | 108.2 | 37.6 | 15.6 | 38.8 | -2.7 |
*Base scenario values (total cases and deaths between June 15 and June 30, 2021). All percentages are calculated based on these values.