Table 4. Extreme weather forecast in Jiangsu Province.
| Condition | Stage* | TAR | Cases |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normal weather | stage 1 | 2.71E-06 | 229 |
| stage 2 | 1.23E-05 | 1044 | |
| stage 3 | 6.03E-05 | 5111 | |
| Hurricane* | stage 1 | 0.00E+00 | 0 |
| stage 2 | 1.23E-05 | 1044 | |
| stage 3 | 6.03E-05 | 5111 | |
| Normal weather | stage 4 | 6.65E-06 | 564 |
| stage 5 | 5.76E-06 | 488 | |
| stage 6 | 8.05E-05 | 6819 | |
| Drought* | stage 4 | 6.65E-06 | 564 |
| stage 5 | 5.76E-06 | 488 | |
| stage 6 | 8.05E-05 | 6819 |
*Hurricane: highest historical wind speed (16.8 m/s) * 1.1 + highest historical precipitation (552 mm) * 1.1; Drought = highest historical average temperature (35°C) * 1.1 + longest historical sunshine duration (10) * 1.1; stage 1: 2020.04.30–2020.05.06; stage 2: 2020.05.07–2020.06.07; stage 3: 2020.04.30–2021.04.30; stage 4: 2020.08.30–2020.09.30; stage 5: 2020.10.01–2020.10.30; stage 6: 2020.10.01–2021.10.01