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. 2022 May 20;13:2839. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-30356-x

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 2 — The marginal effect curves of (a) standardized temperature index and (b) standardized precipitation index were generated by the boosted regression tree (BRT) ensemble fitted to the full incidence samples under strategy a+. The white lines represent the mean effect curves calculated from the ensemble BRT models. 95% confidence intervals of climate variables are indicated by color: red, standardized temperature index; blue, standardized precipitation index. Sub-plots are ordered by the mean relative contribution (%) of covariates, with ± standard deviation (%) given within each sub-plot.