Table 4.
Differences between the Modified and Base Case after 50 year follow-up: sensitivity analyses
| Analysis | Parameter varied | Variation | Reductions in product-related deaths at age 35–84 years | Increases in life-years aged 35–84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | None – Main analysis | 249.0 | 1419 | |
| 2 | Excess risk for exclusive ZYNa | 0% | 255.5 | 1434 |
| 3 | 7% | 242.2 | 1372 | |
| 4 | 20% | 213.4 | 1230 | |
| 5 | Excess risk for dual useb | Mean | 291.8 | 1678 |
| 6 | Sum | 244.7 | 1339 | |
| 7 | Excess risk for current smoking | × 0.8 | 179.4 | 1060 |
| 8 | × 1.2 | 311.4 | 1857 | |
| 9 | Half-life (years) | 4.54 | 235.5 | 1687 |
| 10 | 18.16 | 273.2 | 1517 | |
| Initiation rates compared to base case for smoking: ZYN: dualc | ||||
| (a) overall initiation rate fixed | ||||
| 11 | Halve smoking initiation rate | 35: 54.2: 10.8 | 462.4 | 2225 |
| 12 | Double smoking initiation rate | 82.4: 14.7: 2.9 | 166.3 | 1094 |
| 13 | Halve ZYN initiation rate | 80: 14.3: 5.7 | 165.2 | 1075 |
| 14 | Double ZYN initiation rate | 56: 40: 4 | 355.7 | 1830 |
| 15 | Halve dual initiation rate | 71.8: 25.6: 2.6 | 246.2 | 1341 |
| 16 | Double dual initiation rate | 66.7: 23.8: 9.5 | 238.0 | 1333 |
| (b) overall initiation rate varies | ||||
| 17 | Halve ZYN initiation rate | 70: 12.5: 5 | 345.5 | 1504 |
| 18 | Halve dual initiation rate | 70: 25: 2.5 | 272.6 | 1308 |
| 19 | Double ZYN initiation rate | 70: 50: 5 | 26.7 | 1405 |
| 20 | Double dual initiation rate | 70: 25: 10 | 161.9 | 1167 |
| 21 | Quitting rate for smoking | × 0.5 | 353.1 | 2060 |
| 22 | × 2 | 138.5 | 709 | |
| 23 | Quitting rate for ZYN use | × 0.5 | 235.9 | 1467 |
| 24 | × 2 | 273.0 | 1596 | |
| 25 | Quitting rate for dual use | × 0.5 | 234.6 | 1359 |
| 26 | × 2 | 267.8 | 1451 | |
| 27 | Switching rate from smoking to ZYN | × 0.5 | 220.5 | 1126 |
| 28 | × 2 | 311.0 | 2239 | |
| 29 | Switching rate from ZYN to smoking | × 0.5 | 263.1 | 1529 |
| 30 | × 2 | 226.0 | 1296 | |
| 31 | Switching rate from smoking to dual | × 0.5 | 247.7 | 1419 |
| 32 | × 2 | 252.1 | 1432 | |
| 33 | Switching rate from dual to smoking | × 0.5 | 248.9 | 1419 |
| 34 | × 2 | 248.2 | 1404 | |
| 35 | Switching rate from ZYN to dual | × 0.5 | 264.1 | 1505 |
| 36 | × 2 | 222.6 | 1232 | |
| 37 | Switching rate from dual to ZYN | × 0.5 | 247.7 | 1419 |
| 38 | × 2 | 252.1 | 1432 | |
| Pessimistic Scenariod | 19.9 | 237 |
In analyses 1–6, 11–20 and 23–38 the base case is the same, and the cumulative numbers of product-related deaths and life-years are 13,298.5 and 3,246,177. In other analyses the variation affects both the base and modified case. For analyses 7–10, 21 and 22 the product-related deaths in the base case are, respectively, 11,735.2, 14,741.6, 12,165.2, 14,979.1, 14,224.4 and 12,240.8, while the life-years are 3,268,987, 3,223,069, 3,262,130, 3,223,202, 3,236,449 and 3,258,176
aExcess risk is 3.5% for modified case
bExcess risk is maximum of the risks for cigarettes and for ZYN in the modified case
cThe first six sets of analyses (11–16) fix the overall initiation rate, while halving or doubling one of the rates, while the next four sets (17–20) have no such restriction
dThis simultaneously makes each of the changes in analysis 4, 6, 13, 16, 23, 25, 27, 30, 31, 34, 36 and 37