. 2022 May 24;15(7):726–733. doi: 10.1016/j.jiph.2022.05.011

Table 2.

Trends in deaths due to the COVID-19 in South Africa from November, 2020 to March, 2022 ¹.

	Trend 1		Trend 2		Trend 3		Trend 4
	Period	β²	Period	β²	Period	β²	Period	β²
Beta Outbreak Period³
Second wave of the Pandemic⁴
November 2020	Nov 01–Nov 15	60.12^*	Nov 15–Nov 27	93.90^*	Nov 27–Nov 30	50.32^*
December 2020	Dec 01–Dec 09	114.54^*	Dec 09–Dec 20	194.43^*	Dec 20–Dec 28	306.90^*	Dec 28–Dec 31	451.63^*
January 2021	Jan 01–Jan 31	532.46^*
February 2021	Feb 01 –Feb 03	467.29^*	Feb 03–Feb 12	249.86^*	Feb 12–Feb 18	177.19^*	Feb 18–Feb 28	137.87^*
March 2021	Mar 01–Mar 26	98.25^*	Mar 26–Mar 31	50.29^*
Delta Outbreak Period⁵
Third wave of the Pandemic⁶
April 2021	Apr 01–Apr 06	24.42^*	Apr 06–Apr 24	60.11^*	Apr 24–Apr 30	41.58^*
May 2021	May 01–May 09	46.38^*	May 09–May 17	69.02^*	May 17–May 31	86.16^*
June 2021	Jun 01–Jun 07	71.85^*	Jun 07–Jun 20	127.25^*	Jun 20–Jun 28	171.67^*	Jun 28–Jun 30	263.98^*
July 2021	Jul 01–Jul 19	358.11^*	Jul 19–Jul 31	399.03^*
August 2021	Aug 01–Aug 18	352.56^*	Aug 18–Aug 31	303.84^*
September 2021	Sep 01–Sep 17	203.65^*	Sep 17–Sep 30	129.61^*
October 2021	Oct 01–Oct 04	36.53^*	Oct 04–Oct 09	94.69	Oct 09–Oct 31	41.88^*
Omicron Outbreak Period⁷
Fourth wave of the Pandemic⁸
November 2021	Nov 01–Nov 17	27.87^*	Nov 17–Nov 22	12.30^*	Nov 22–Nov 25	55.42^*	Nov 25–Nov 30	17.84^*
December 2021	Dec 01–Dec 18	25.10^*	Dec 18–Dec 24	73.55^*	Dec 24–Dec 28	29.84^*	Dec 28–Dec 31	96.50^*
January 2022	Jan 01–Jan 04	74.26^*	Jan 04–Jan 07	274.88^*	Jan 07–Jan 16	124.06^*	Jan 16–Jan 31	118.16^*
February 2022	Feb 01–Feb 06	124.97^*	Feb 06–Feb 16	164.79^*	Feb 16–Feb 19	343.27^*	Feb 19–Feb 28	83.10^*
March 2022	Mar 01–Mar 11	27.70^*	Mar 11–Mar 15	5.42	Mar 15–Mar 18	42.36^*	Mar 18–Mar 31	12.24^*

Trends analysis identified joinpoints, which are points where the line segment of the COVID-19-related deaths trends are joined. Each joinpoint denotes a statistically significant (P = 0.05) change in the trends of COVID-19-related deaths in South Africa from November 2020 to March 2022.

β is the estimated regression coefficient for a specific trend; β was calculated from the data-driven Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) method for the joinpoint model.

Beta outbreak period was considered from the prior month when the Beta variant of SARS-CoV-2 had discovered by scientists in South Africa on December 18, 2020, to March 2021.

⁴

The tentative duration of the second wave (November 2020–March 2021) was determined from the line graph of the daily cases in South Africa and in the line graph, the visible surges in new cases followed by a decline was considered.

⁵

Delta outbreak period was considered from the prior month when the earliest documented sample with Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 was identified in South Africa (May 08, 2021) to the prior month of the earliest documented sample with Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 reported in (November 2021).

⁶

The tentative duration of the third wave (April 2021–October 2021) was determined from the line graph of the daily cases in South Africa and in the line graph, the visible surge in new cases followed by a decline was considered.

⁷

Omicron outbreak period was considered from the month when the earliest documented sample with the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 was reported in South Africa (November 09, 2021) to the last reported date of this analysis (March 31, 2022).

⁸

This is an ongoing wave during our analysis. The tentative duration of the fourth wave (November 2021 to continue) was determined from the line graph of the daily cases in South Africa and in the line graph, the visible surge in new cases expected to be followed by a decline was considered.

Denotes that the estimated regression coefficient (β) was significantly different from 0 for a specific trend (P < 0.05) in the COVID-19 related deaths in South Africa.