Table 3.
Partition models parameter using decision tree method on the daily cases and daily deaths data segregated on the Beta, Delta and Omicron outbreak periods in South Africa a.
| N | Death/dayb | LogWorthc | R2b | AICsd | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta Outbreak Periode | |||||
| Recovery rate ≥ 89.11 % | 103 | 126.6 ± 90.4 | 5.924 | 0.533 | 1907.7 |
| Recovery rate < 89.11 % | 48 | 427.6 ± 194.1 | 2.128 | ||
| Case/day < 5297 | 100 | 124.7 ± 90.0 | 3.531 | 0.507 | 1915.9 |
| Case/day ≥ 5297 | 51 | 413.7 ± 197.3 | 1.765 | ||
| Percent positivityf < 17.23 % | 119 | 162.6 ± 138.5 | 2.868 | 0.359 | 1955.3 |
| Percent positivityf ≥ 17.23 % | 32 | 444.3 ± 205.1 | 0.919 | ||
| Delta Outbreak Periodg | |||||
| Recovery rate ≥ 91.92 % | 133 | 83.1 ± 63.9 | 10.126 | 0.565 | 2573.5 |
| Recovery rate < 91.92 % | 81 | 312.1 ± 136.6 | 0.211 | ||
| Case/day < 5574 | 120 | 75.3 ± 57.4 | 10.189 | 0.521 | 2594.1 |
| Case/day ≥ 5574 | 94 | 290.3 ± 140.9 | 2.185 | ||
| Percent positivityf < 16.20 % | 133 | 118.2 ± 122.9 | 0.899 | 0.200 | 2703.8 |
| Percent positivityf ≥ 16.20 % | 81 | 254.5 ± 147.6 | 0.919 | ||
| Omicron Outbreak Periodh | |||||
| Recovery rate ≥ 96.31 % | 59 | 31.4 ± 38.9 | 0.903 | 0.152 | 1744.9 |
| Recovery rate < 96.31 % | 92 | 97.8 ± 93.7 | 1.913 | ||
| Case/day < 2111 | 66 | 38.2 ± 55.3 | 0.651 | 0.127 | 1749.2 |
| Case/day ≥ 2111 | 85 | 98.1 ± 92.1 | 3.012 | ||
| Percent positivityf < 15.94 % | 63 | 26.9 ± 27.2 | 0.411 | 0.209 | 1734.4 |
| Percent positivityf ≥ 15.94 % | 88 | 104.0 ± 94.7 | 5.304 | ||
| Backlog counti = No | 131 | 56.5 ± 67.5 | ----j | 0.223 | 1731.7 |
| Backlog counti = Yes | 20 | 172.4 ± 107.6 | ----j |
Using the analysis platform, we conducted only one split over the dataset. We used decision tree method of the partition model to make a single pass through our dataset to produce a single portioned tree.
COVID-19 related deaths per day were reported as mean ± SD values on the partitioned daily cases groups.
LogWorth values reported after one split; node splitting is based on the LogWorth statistic; values gives an idea about further splitting on an arm will be done on which variable basis.
AICs denote the corrected Akaike’s Information Criteria.
Beta outbreak period was considered from the prior month when the Beta variant of SARS-CoV-2 had discovered by scientists in South Africa on December 18, 2020, to March 2021.
Percent positivity denotes the percentage of people tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 on a given day.
Delta outbreak period was considered from the prior month when the earliest documented sample with Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 was identified in South Africa (May 08, 2021) to the prior month of the earliest documented sample with Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 reported in (November 2021).
Omicron outbreak period was considered from the month when the earliest documented sample with Omicron variant was reported in South Africa (November 09, 2021) to the last reported date of this analysis (March 31, 2022).
Since January 06, 2022, the Department of Health of the Republic of South Africa had been recorded and reported COVID-19 death backlog as an ongoing audit exercise across the country to address a backlog of COVID-19 mortality.
Values are not available for this parameter.