Figure 3.

Performance measures and calibration plots for each model in the validation cohort. Red line indicates perfect calibration; black dashed line indicates calibration slope for that particular model; blue rug plots indicate distribution of predicted risk for participants who did (top) and did not (bottom) meet the primary outcome; grey shaded rectangle indicates region within which no individual participant’s predicted risk falls for that particular model. C-statistics indicate how well participants who met the primary outcome are differentiated from those who did not; perfect discrimination is indicated by a c-statistic of 1.0. Calibration slopes indicate agreement between predicted probabilities and observed outcomes; perfect calibration is indicated by a slope of 1.0. Abbreviations: CRP, C-reactive protein; IL-6, interleukin 6; NLR, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio; PCT, procalcitonin; sTREM-1, soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cell-1; suPAR, soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor.