Table 2.

Cases and deaths of the scenarios of no vaccination, high-risk prioritization, and loss of natural immunity in the model.

Yearly immunity loss, %	No vaccination		High-risk prioritization		No prioritization
	Cases	Deaths	Cases∗	Deaths∗	Cases∗	Deaths∗
0 (base case)	2 701 514	108 194	2 611 060 (90 454; 3.35%)	86 476 (21 718; 20.07%)	2 659 307 (42 207; 3.35%)	96 113 (12 081; 20.07%)
5	2 997 655	117 732	2 901 602 (96 054; 3.2%)	88 862 (28 870; 24.52%)	2 947 959 (49 697; 3.2%)	99 434 (18 299; 24.52%)
10	3 289 968	127 036	3 188 525 (101 443; 3.08%)	91 210 (35 826; 28.2%)	3 233 060 (56 908; 3.08%)	102 682 (24 354; 28.2%)
15	3 578 524	136 111	3 471 896 (106 628; 2.98%)	93 519 (42 592; 31.29%)	3 514 673 (63 851; 2.98%)	105 860 (30 252; 31.29%)
20	3 863 394	144 966	3 751 777 (111 617; 2.89%)	95 790 (49 176; 33.92%)	3 792 858 (70 535; 2.89%)	108 969 (35 997; 33.92%)
25	4 144 645	153 606	4 028 228 (116 417; 2.81%)	98 024 (55 582; 36.19%)	4 067 675 (76 970; 2.81%)	112 011 (41 595; 36.19%)
30	4 422 343	162 037	4 301 309 (121 034; 2.74%)	100 220 (61 817; 38.15%)	4 339 180 (83 163; 2.74%)	114 987 (47 050; 38.15%)
35	4 696 555	170 266	4 571 080 (125 475; 2.67%)	102 381 (67 885; 39.87%)	4 607 431 (89 124; 2.67%)	117 900 (52 366; 39.87%)
40	4 967 342	178 298	4 837 596 (129 746; 2.61%)	104 507 (73 792; 41.39%)	4 872 482 (94 860; 2.61%)	120 751 (57 548; 41.39%)
45	5 234 767	186 139	5 100 915 (133 852; 2.56%)	106 597 (79 542; 42.73%)	5 134 387 (100 380; 2.56%)	123 540 (62 599; 42.73%)
50	5 498 889	193 795	5 361 089 (137 800; 2.51%)	108 653 (85 141; 43.93%)	5 393 199 (105 691; 2.51%)	126 271 (67 524; 43.93%)

Note. Cases are considered not just from the start of the vaccination period but in the whole simulation period, given the change throughout the complete simulation time window.

^∗n (absolute change; percent change relative to no vaccination).