Table 2.
Summary of the key epidemiological estimates of the outbreak under different scenarios. The epidemic curve of each scenario was visualized in Fig. 2.
| scenario | description | cum. # on Feb 21 | doubling time (day) | peak time | Visualization |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (0) | baseline, λ = 1 | 1340 (190, 2493) | 3.4 (1.8, 8.1) | Feb 16 (Feb 7, Mar 2) | black curve in Fig. 2 |
| (1) | main result, R0 = 2.86, λ = 0.66 | 1118 (39, 2389) | 3.4 (1.7, 12.6) | Feb 22 (Feb 7, Mar 18) | blue curve in Fig. 2 |
| (2) | based on (1), remove 1000 susceptibles | 1195 (26, 2701) | 3.9 (2.0, 9.3) | Feb 18 (Feb 9, Mar 18) | green curve in Fig. 2 |
| (3) | based on (1), R0 reduced by 0.5 | 562 (26, 2154) | 4.1 (1.5, 9.1) | Mar 3 (Feb 14, Apr 11) | gold curve in Fig. 2 |
| (4) | based on (1), implement (2) and (3) | 512 (31, 1706) | 3.5 (1.7, 9.3) | Mar 1 (Feb 12, Mar 30) | red curve in Fig. 2 |