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. 2022 Jan 6;6(6):1392–1402. doi: 10.1002/hep4.1889

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© 2022 The Authors. Hepatology Communications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

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FIG. 4 — Performance (in terms of calibration) of the original ANTICIPATE model and the ANTICIPATE‐PBC model in predicting VNT. (A) Calibration plot of the original ANTICIPATE model. This model underpredicted the risk of VNT in the segment of patients with a risk of between 5% and 20%. (B) Calibration plot of the ANTICIPATE‐PBC model, which shows excellent agreement between the predicted and observed probabilities of VNT. The bars over the x‐axis show the distribution of the patients according to predicted risks. Z‐value represents the Spiegelhalter calibration⁽ ²⁰ ⁾ with its P value. The closer the value of the Z‐statistic to zero, and the higher its P value, the better the calibration of the model.