Table 2.
Results for difference-in-difference regressions are described in Equations (5)–(8). The interaction terms estimate the impact of the mandates on businesses and counties that are impacted following announcement or implementation. These represent the change in the trend between impacted and non-impacted businesses or counties following the shock of the mandates, making these our coefficients of interest.
| ln(7-Day Average Daily Business Visits) | 7-Day Average COVID-19 Cases Per 100,000 | Weekly Dose-1 Vaccination Rate Increase | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (all 18+) | (18–49) | (50+) | |||||||||||
| Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (13) |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||
| Post-Mandate (9/13) | −0.00911 *** | −0.00914 *** | −0.00766 *** | −0.00769 *** | −24.88 * *** | −25.79 *** | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| (0.000580) | (0.00254) | (0.000593) | (0.00257) | (1.783) | (1.757) | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
| Businesses that fall under mandate | 0.359 *** | 0.359 *** | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
| (0.0160) | (0.0157) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||
| Post-mandate * under mandate | −0.0672 *** | −0.0672 *** | −0.0672 *** | −0.0672 *** | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| (0.000791) | (0.00498) | (0.000791) | (0.00498) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Counties with mandate | - | - | - | - | 73.93 *** | 5.108 | 82.18 *** | −0.137 | −0.953 *** | 0.0480 | −0.628 ** | −0.185 *** | −0.325 *** |
| - | - | - | - | (5.004) | (6.063) | (5.135) | (0.175) | (0.340) | (0.129) | (0.247) | (0.0570) | (0.116) | |
| Post-Mandate * county with mandate | - | - | - | - | −9.599 *** | −6.630 *** | −9.955 *** | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| - | - | - | - | (2.400) | (1.226) | (2.356) | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Post Mandate Announcement (8/5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | −0.188 ** | −0.144 ** | −0.0438 * | |||
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | (0.0749) | (0.0550) | (0.0243) | ||||
| Post-Announcement * county with mandate | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.130 * | 0.157 ** | 0.0897 * | 0.106 ** | 0.0398 * | 0.0511 ** |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | (0.0721) | (0.0623) | (0.0530) | (0.0453) | (0.0234) | (0.0213) | |
| ln(New County COVID-19 Cases) | −0.00147 *** | −0.00146 * | −0.00161 *** | −0.00160 * | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| (0.000245) | (0.000773) | (0.000258) | (0.000863) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| ln(County Arrivals) | 0.134 *** | 0.134 *** | 0.143 *** | 0.143 *** | −49.78 *** | −5.394 | −55.10 *** | 0.0380 | 0.518 ** | −0.0467 | 0.355 ** | 0.0847 ** | 0.163 ** |
| (0.00103) | (0.00314) | (0.00107) | (0.00332) | −2.919 | −3.849 | −3.024 | (0.102) | (0.211) | (0.0751) | (0.154) | (0.0332) | (0.0723) | |
| 7-day COVID-19 test positivity rate | - | - | - | 0.107 *** | 0.0338 * | 0.0800 *** | 0.0280 * | 0.0266 *** | 0.00575 | ||||
| - | - | - | (0.0105) | (0.0197) | (0.00768) | (0.0143) | (0.00339) | (0.00676) | |||||
| - | - | - | |||||||||||
| Observations | 2,908,618 | 2,908,618 | 2,908,618 | 2,908,618 | 644 | 644 | 644 | 68 | 68 | 68 | 68 | 68 | 68 |
| R-squared | 0.019 | 0.019 | 0.471 | 0.244 | 0.495 | 0.771 | 0.732 | 0.771 | 0.720 | 0.716 | 0.682 | ||
| Business fixed effects | No | Yes | No | Yes | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Day-of-the-week fixed effects | No | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| County fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Day fixed effects | - | - | - | - | No | Yes | No | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes |
| Number of Businesses | 19,625 | 19,625 | 19,625 | 19,625 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Number of Days | 182 | 182 | 182 | 182 | 169 | 169 | 169 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
Standard errors reported in parentheses. Columns (1)–(4) regress variables onto the natural logarithm of daily visits to each individual business between 1 July 2021–31 December 2021. Businesses that fall under the vaccine or test passport mandate include those in the food and beverage industry, entertainment, and arts. Columns (5)–(7) regress variables onto the 7-day rolling average of new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 individuals for each county from 1 July 2021–20 December 2021. The counties that implemented the mandate are Honolulu and Maui. Foot traffic and COVID-19 test positivity observations are on a daily level. Columns (8)–(13) regress variables onto the increase in the county vaccination rates of the first dose administered weekly for all adults, those aged 18–49, and then for those 50+ from 17 June 2021–11 October 2021. Statistical significance denoted by *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1.