TABLE 5.

Cumulative Simulated COVID-19 Infections, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the Community, Among Incarcerated Individuals, and Among Jail Staff During a 6-month Period Under Four Arrest Reduction Scenarios

	Community Social Distancing, No Arrest Reduction	Reduce Bail Eligible Arrests by 90%	Reduce Arrests in Groups Vulnerable to COVID-19 by 90%	Reduce Arrests for Low Level Offenses by 90%	Blanket 90% Arrest Reduction
Community
Infections	450,621	433,262	429,257	362,055	349,306
Hospitalizations	22,892	21,604	21,320	16,855	16,079
Deaths	4,546	4,228	4,163	3,135	2,967
Incarcerated
Infections	7,421	5,721	5,334	1,931	1,682
Hospitalizations	362	285	235	103	91
Deaths	106	84	45	31	27
Staff
Infections	370	368	368	332	323
Hospitalizations	21	21	21	19	18
Deaths	2	2	2	2	2