Table 1.
Model parameters and sources of data for estimating the burden of seasonal influenza, Beijing, 2015–2016 season
| Parameters | Sources of data | Data included in the model |
|---|---|---|
| Na: age-specific reported number of ILI consultations from ILI surveillance | ILI surveillance in Beijing | Aged 0–4 years: 241 834; Aged 5–14 years: 124 742; Aged 15–24 years: 61 947; Aged 25–59 years: 162 988; Aged 60+ years: 43 943 |
| Ra: age-specific proportion of positive cases from influenza virus surveillance* | Influenza virus surveillance in Beijing | Aged 0–4 years: 10·7%(454/4258); Aged 5–14 years: 20·0%(571/2851); Aged 15–24 years: 16·9%(498/2949); Aged 25–59 years: 20·5%(1652/8069); Aged 60+ years: 23·9%(319/1337) |
| P: proportion of symptomatic cases among influenza infections | Published study [19] | 58·3–74·5% |
| Q: proportion of ILI cases among symptomatic infections | Published study [16] | 26·0–42·0% |
| Ca: age-specific consultation rates | the fourth National Health Services Survey of China [20] | Aged 0–4 years: 69·2–76·2%; Aged 5–14 years: 57·2–62·2%; Aged 15–24 years: 48·2–52·8%; Aged 25–59 years: 49·6–51·4%; Aged 60+ years: 69·5–72·9% |
| S: success rate for sampling pharyngeal swab specimens | Published study [16] | 80–90% |
| T: test sensitivity of detection of polymerase chain reaction | Published study [16] | 95–100% |
ILI, influenza-like illness.
Age-specific proportion of positive cases was calculated by dividing the number of positive specimens by the total number of specimens within each age group.