Table 2.
Results of modelling median annual case numbers and median annual incidence (with 95% credible intervals) of O157 and non-O157 STEC illness in Germany based on notification data of haemolytic uraemic syndrome (HUS)
| No. | Total | O157 total | O157 bloody GE | O157 non-bloody GE | Non-O157 total | Non-O157 bloody GE | Non-O157 non-bloody GE | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HUS notifications | Median | 65 (58–74) | ||||||
| Incidence* | 0·08 (0·07–0·09) | ||||||||
| 2 | Estimated true number of HUS cases | Median | 108 (80–197) | ||||||
| Incidence* | 0·13 (0·10–0·24) | ||||||||
| 3 | Estimated true number of STEC-associated HUS cases | Median | 90 (66–164) | 60 (44–110) | 29 (21–54) | ||||
| Incidence* | 0·11 (0·08–0·20) | 0·07 (0·05–0·13) | 0·04 (0·03–0·07) | ||||||
| 4 | Estimated true number of laboratory- confirmed symptomatic STEC cases | Median | 2312 (954–8864) | 486 (199–1705) | 181 (63–678) | 299 (116–1079) | 1706 (577–7999) | 189 (58–908) | 1514 (513–7096) |
| Incidence* | 2·83 (1·20–10·80) | 0·59 (0·24–2·08) | 0·22 (0·08–0·83) | 0·37 (0·14–1·32) | 2·09 (0·70–9·80) | 0·23 (0·07–1·11) | 1·85 (0·60–8·7) | ||
| 5 | Estimated true number of symptomatic STEC cases | Median | 28 347 (10 217–119 041) | 4969 (1835–19 406) | 730 (229–3037) | 4171 (1449–16 846) | 22 019 (6764–109 046) | 769 (211–3,925) | 21 192 (6481–105 641) |
| Incidence* | 34·63 (12·00–145·00) | 6·07 (2·2–23·7) | 0·89 (0·28–3·71) | 5·10 (1·80–20·60) | 26·90 (8·00–133·00) | 0·94 (0·26–4·80) | 25.89 (8·00–129·00) |
*
Per 100 000 population.