Table 2.
Median with interquartile range (IQR) and maximum number of holdings with at least one case of atypical scrapie (AS) and probability of finding at least one holding with two cases of AS using simulation of the actual Fallen stock survey data and randomly extracted data from the census for the years 2006–2012
| Actual | Random | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability of detecting at least one holding with two cases of AS | Median no. holdings with one case of AS (IQR) | Maximum no. holdings with one case of AS | Probability of detecting at least one holding with two cases of AS | Median no. holdings with one case of AS (IQR) | Maximum no. holdings with one case of AS | |
| 2006 | 0·21 | 26 (30–22) | 48 | 0·03 | 27 (30–23) | 57 |
| 2007 | 0·13 | 19 (22–16) | 48 | 0·01 | 19 (22–17) | 42 |
| 2008 | 0·12 | 15 (17–12) | 30 | 0·008 | 15 (18–12) | 35 |
| 2009 | 0·16 | 14 (17–12) | 32 | 0·008 | 15 (17–12) | 36 |
| 2010 | 0·17 | 15 (17–12) | 48 | 0·008 | 15 (18–12) | 37 |
| 2011 | 0·16 | 16 (19–13) | 32 | 0·013 | 18 (21–15) | 40 |
| 2012 | 0·07 | 19 (22–16) | 35 | 0·014 | 19 (22–16) | 43 |