Table 4.

Ranked Simulation Results of Share of Preference

Procedure	Early HCC Sensitivity (%)	Risk of Physical Harm (%)	Out-of-Pocket Costs, (2019 US$)	Test Logistics	Convenience/Test Duration (min)	Share of Preference (%) (95% CI)
Simulation 1
MRI	84	10	99.76	LT	37	52.2 (47.0–57.4)
US+AFP	63	16	32.61	RP	35	15.0 (13.0–17.1)
AFP alone	39	24	5.00	BD	10	12.8 (10.4–15.2)
CT scan	63	12	54.71	OS	20	9.3 (8.1–10.5)
None	—	—	—	—	—	5.4 (3.2–7.6)
US alone	45	10	28.47	RP	25	5.3 (4.4–6.2)
Simulation 2
MRI	84	10	99.76	LT	37	40.0 (35.3–44.7)
Biomarker	68	10	35.95	BD	10	26.9 (24.1–29.8)
US+AFP	63	16	32.61	RP	35	10.6 (8.9–12.2)
AFP alone	39	24	5.00	BD	10	7.8 (6.4–9.3)
CT scan	63	12	54.71	OS	20	6.0 (5.2–6.7)
None	—	—	—	—	—	4.8 (2.7–6.9)
US alone	45	10	28.47	RP	25	3.9 (3.2–4.6)
Simulation 3
aMRI	84	10	99.76	LT	17	35.1 (32.1–38.0)
MRI	84	10	99.76	LT	37	27.4 (25.0–29.8)
US+AFP	63	16	32.61	RP	35	11.5 (9.5–13.5)
AFP alone	39	24	5.00	BD	10	10.2 (7.9–12.4)
CT scan	63	12	54.71	OS	20	6.9 (5.9–7.9)
None	—	—	—	—	—	4.6 (2.6–6.6)
US alone	45	10	28.47	RP	25	4.3 (3.5–5.2)
Simulation 4
aMRI	84	10	99.76	LT	17	29.0 (26.3–31.7)
MRI	84	10	99.76	LT	37	23.3 (21.0–25.7)
Biomarker	68	10	35.95	BD	10	20.9 (18.3–23.5)
US+AFP	63	16	32.61	RP	35	8.8 (7.2–10.5)
AFP alone	39	24	5.00	BD	10	5.5 (4.3–6.8)
CT scan	63	12	54.71	OS	20	4.9 (4.2–5.6)
None	—	—	—	—	—	4.1 (2.3–6.0)
US alone	45	10	28.47	RP	25	3.4 (2.7–4.1)

AFP, alpha-fetoprotein; aMRI, abbreviated magnetic resonance imaging; BD, a single blood draw; CI, confidence interval; CT, computed tomography; MRI, magnetic resonance imaging; LT, lay flat in a small enclosed tube that makes loud noises; OS, lay flat in an open space; RP, roll in different positions while a technician uses a probe; SOP, share of preference; US, ultrasound.