Table 2.
Summaries of interrupted time series regression analyses of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide and estimated number of cumulative excess deaths by suicide during the pandemic period by age among Japanese men.
| Pre-pandemic trenda | Pandemic trendb | Rate changec | Trend changed | Cumulative excess deathe | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (95%CI) | (95%CI) | (95%CI) | (95%CI) | (95%CI) | |
| Under 20 years | 0·0013 | −0·0041 | 0·0745 | −0·0054 | 34 |
| (−0·000,002 to 0·0025) | (−0·0105 to 0·0023) | (−0·0204 to 0·1694) | (−0·0118 to 0·0011) | (−107 to 175) | |
| 20–29 years | −0·0055* | −0·0037 | 0·3185 | 0·0018 | 466** |
| (−0·0097 to −0·0013) | (−0·0275 to 0·0202) | (−0·0410 to 0·6780) | (−0·0225 to 0·0262) | (169 to 763) | |
| 30–39 years | −0·0021 | −0·0007 | 0·0357 | 0·0014 | 76 |
| (−0·0068 to 0·0026) | (−0·0269 to 0·0254) | (−0·3569 to 0·4282) | (−0·0251 to 0·0279) | (−275 to 427) | |
| 40–49 years | −0·0070*** | 0·0117 | 0·0150 | 0·0187 | 423* |
| (−0·0107 to −0·0032) | (−0·0079 to 0·0313) | (−0·2889 to 0·3189) | (−0·0013 to 0·0387) | (97 to 749) | |
| 50–59 years | −0·0086*** | 0·0091 | −0·1575 | 0·0177 | 66 |
| (−0·0120 to −0·0052) | (−0·0086 to 0·0268) | (−0·4348 to 0·1199) | (−0·0003 to 0·0357) | (−206 to 338) | |
| 60–69 years | −0·0051*** | −0·0071 | −0·0089 | −0·0020 | −49 |
| (−0·0078 to −0·0025) | (−0·0203 to 0·006) | (−0·1941 to 0·1763) | (−0·0154 to 0·0114) | (−241 to 142) | |
| 70–79 years | −0·0081*** | −0·0040 | 0·0143 | 0·0041 | 94 |
| (−0·0111 to −0·0052) | (−0·0144 to 0·0064) | (−0·1416 to 0·1702) | (−0·0066 to 0·0148) | (−85 to 273) | |
| 80 years or older | −0·0094** | −0·0179 | 0·2751 | −0·0085 | 163 |
| (−0·0149 to −0·0039) | (−0·0360 to 0·0003) | (−0·0141 to 0·5642) | (−0·0272 to 0·0102) | (−41 to 368) |
a"Pre-pandemic trend" means the pre-pandemic slope of mortality rates and is the coefficient β1 of the regression equation shown in the text.
b"Pandemic trend" means the slope of mortality rates after the onset of the pandemic and is the sum of β1 and β3.
c"Rate change" means the change in the mortality rates between before and after the onset of the pandemic, and is β2.
d"Trend change" means the difference in the mortality rate slopes before and after the onset of the pandemic, and is β3.
eCumulative difference in suicide rates during the pandemic is calculated using β2 and β3. Cumulative excess deaths are obtained by multiplying the cumulative difference by the mean monthly population. For more details on the computations, please refer to the Stata code in Supplementary Appendix 6.
*p<0·05, **p<0·01, ***p<0·001.