Table 3.
Summaries of interrupted time series regression analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide and estimated number of cumulative excess deaths by suicide during the pandemic period by age among Japanese women.
| Pre-pandemic trenda | Pandemic trendb | Rate changec | Trend changed | Cumulative excess deathe | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (95%CI) | (95%CI) | (95%CI) | (95%CI) | (95%CI) | |
| Under 20 years | 0·0015** | 0·0019 | 0·0375 | 0·0004 | 89 |
| (0·0006 to 0·0024) | (−0·0036 to 0·0073) | (−0·0452 to 0·1201) | (−0·0051 to 0·0059) | (−14 to 191) | |
| 20–29 years | 0·0023 | 0·0066 | 0·2254 | 0·0043 | 352** |
| (−0·0009 to 0·0055) | (−0·0173 to 0·0306) | (−0·140 to 0·5909) | (−0·0196 to 0·0282) | (117 to 587) | |
| 30–39 years | −0·0040*** | −0·0025 | 0·2778* | 0·0014 | 421*** |
| (−0·0060 to −0·0019) | (−0·0196 to 0·0145) | (0·0060 to 0·5496) | (−0·0156 to 0·0185) | (242 to 600) | |
| 40–49 years | −0·0009 | −0·0048 | 0·1945 | −0·0038 | 285 |
| (−0·0045 to 0·0026) | (−0·0250 to 0·0154) | (−0·1439 to 0·5328) | (−0·0242 to 0·0165) | (−91 to 661) | |
| 50–59 years | −0·0033* | 0·0029 | 0·1164 | 0·0062 | 322* |
| (−0·0064 to −0·0002) | (−0·0158 to 0·0215) | (−0·1714 to 0·4043) | (−0·0125 to 0·0249) | (63 to 582) | |
| 60–69 years | −0·0050*** | −0·0019 | 0·2040* | 0·0031 | 396*** |
| (−0·0076 to −0·0025) | (−0·0145 to 0·0106) | (0·0150 to 0·3930) | (−0·0097 to 0·0159) | (189 to 603) | |
| 70–79 years | −0·0061*** | −0·0022 | 0·1325 | 0·0039 | 325** |
| (−0·0088 to −0·0034) | (−0·0133 to 0·0089) | (−0·0506 to 0·3156) | (−0·0074 to 0·0152) | (98 to 551) | |
| 80 years or older | −0·0057*** | 0·0021 | 0·0078 | 0·0078 | 148 |
| (−0·0081 to −0·0033) | (−0·0128 to 0·0171) | (−0·2286 to 0·2442) | (−0·0071 to 0·0228) | (−54 to 350) |
a"Pre-pandemic trend" means the pre-pandemic slope of mortality rates and is the coefficient β1 of the regression equation shown in the text.
b"Pandemic trend" means the slope of mortality rates after the onset of the pandemic and is the sum of β1 and β3.
c"Rate change" means the change in the mortality rates between before and after the onset of the pandemic, and is β2.
d"Trend change" means the difference in the mortality rate slopes before and after the onset of the pandemic, and is β3.
eCumulative difference in suicide rates during the pandemic is calculated using β2 and β3. Cumulative excess deaths are obtained by multiplying the cumulative difference by the mean monthly population. For more details on the computations, please refer to the Stata code in Supplementary Appendix 6.
*p<0·05, **p<0·01, ***p<0·001.