Table 2.
Attribution of human cases with the Asymmetric Island model, excluding and including travel as a ‘source’
| Asymmetric Island model | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All cases | Domestic cases | Unknown travel history | |||||
| Excl. travel | Incl. travel* | Excl. travel | Incl. travel | ||||
| (N = 297) | 95% CrI | (N = 297) | (N = 246) | 95% CrI | (N = 51) | 95% CrI | |
| Chicken, Denmark | 0·52 | 0·37–0·67 | 0·49 | 0·52 | 0·36–0·67 | 0·33 | 0·12–0·56 |
| Chicken, imported | 0·17 | 0·03–0·33 | 0·16 | 0·17 | 0·03–0·32 | 0·15 | 0·01–0·36 |
| Turkey | 0·05 | 0·00–0·24 | 0·05 | 0·05 | 0·00–0·23 | 0·07 | 0·00–0·23 |
| Duck | 0·02 | 0·00–0·10 | 0·03 | 0·02 | 0·00–0·11 | 0·05 | 0·00–0·15 |
| Cattle | 0·17 | 0·07–0·28 | 0·18 | 0·17 | 0·07–0·28 | 0·23 | 0·07–0·42 |
| Pig | 0·07 | 0·00–0·18 | 0·07 | 0·07 | 0·00–0·18 | 0·06 | 0·00–0·20 |
| Travel | — | — | 0·02 | — | — | 0·11 | 0·01–0·29 |
CrI, Credibility interval.
Values given are proportion of cases attributable to the specific source and corresponding uncertainty (95% CrI).
*
Based on the separate models for domestic cases and cases without travel history.