Table 1.
Campylobacteriosis clusters detected through simulation of prospective detection in the North East of England, 2008–2011
| Cluster code | First detection (run date) | Start date | Initial largest circle (all cases)† | Largest circle (all cases)‡ | Highest probability circle§ | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases (expected) | Population (%)* | P value | Cases (expected) | Population (%)* | P value | Duration (weeks) | Cases (expected) | Relative risk | Population (%)* | P value | |||
| 2008/1 | 25 Feb. 2008 | 11 Feb. 2008 | 3 (<1) | 0·1 | 0·042 | 16 (4) | 6·8 | 0·036 | 4 | 18 (5) | 4·02 | 4·4 | 0·034 |
| 2008/2 | 12 May 2008 | 14 Apr. 2008 | 30 (12) | 12·1 | 0·026 | As initial largest circle | 4 | 23 (6) | 4·08 | 5·3 | 0·003 | ||
| 2008/3 | 21 July 2008 | 7 July 2008 | 9 (1) | 0·9 | 0·041 | 13 (2) | 0·9 | 0·001 | 3 | 13 (2) | 7·51 | 0·9 | 0·001 |
| 2008/4 | 28 July 2008 | 30 June 2008 | 23 (7) | 2·8 | 0·035 | 121 (83) | 34·1 | 0·038 | 4 | 73 (38) | 2·23 | 15·5 | 0·001 |
| 2008/5 | 22 Sept. 2008 | 25 Aug. 2008 | 167 (122) | 48·9 | 0·006 | As initial largest circle | 4 | 114 (69) | 2·05 | 28·7 | <0·001 | ||
| 2008/6 | 27 Oct. 2008 | 6 Oct. 2008 | 63 (35) | 24·8 | 0·044 | As initial largest circle | 4 | 77 (46) | 1·99 | 23·8 | 0·034 | ||
| 2009/1 | 9 Feb. 2009 | 12 Jan. 2009 | 70 (43) | 37·8 | 0·030 | As initial largest circle | 4 | 63 (36) | 2·32 | 32·4 | 0·026 | ||
| 2009/2 | 23 Feb. 2009 | 26 Jan. 2009 | 100 (69) | 49·1 | 0·024 | As initial largest circle | 4 | 95 (60) | 2·27 | 43·4 | 0·002 | ||
| 2009/3 | 13 Apr. 2009 | 16 Mar. 2009 | As highest probability circle | As highest probability circle | 4 | 46 (22) | 2·42 | 15·4 | 0·022 | ||||
| 2009/4 | 4 May 2009 | 27 Apr. 2009 | 5 (<1) | 0·7 | 0·032 | 116 (82) | 49·9 | 0·042 | 1 | 5 (<1) | 71·83 | 0·2 | <0·001 |
| 2009/5 | 8 June 2009 | 11 May 2009 | 137 (97) | 48·8 | 0·006 | As initial largest circle | 3 | 177 (118) | 2·07 | 44·3 | <0·001 | ||
| 2010/1 | 15 Feb. 2010 | 18 Jan. 2010 | As highest probability circle | As highest probability circle | 4 | 37 (16) | 2·66 | 11·7 | 0·025 | ||||
| 2010/2 | 15 Mar. 2010 | 15 Feb. 2010 | As highest probability circle | As highest probability circle | 4 | 16 (4) | 4·49 | 2·3 | 0·049 | ||||
| 2010/3 | 19 Apr. 2010 | 22 Mar. 2010 | As highest probability circle | 29 (12) | 9·5 | 0·047 | 4 | 13 (3) | 5·32 | 2·2 | 0·033 | ||
| 2010/4 | 7 June 2010 | 10 May 2010 | 92 (59) | 28·6 | 0·040 | As initial largest circle | 3 | 49 (23) | 2·44 | 11·1 | 0·006 | ||
| 2010/5 | 5 July 2010 | 7 June 2010 | 132 (90) | 25·7 | 0·044 | As initial largest circle | 4 | 50 (20) | 2·61 | 5·2 | 0·001 | ||
| 2010/6 | 15 Nov. 2010 | 18 Oct. 2010 | As highest probability circle | As highest probability circle | 3 | 10 (1) | 7·69 | 0·7 | 0·032 | ||||
| 2011/1 | 14 Feb. 2011 | 24 Jan. 2011 | 15 (3) | 3·7 | 0·013 | 19 (5) | 3·8 | 0·024 | 3 | 10 (1) | 9·61 | 1·3 | 0·004 |
| 2011/2 | 23 May 2011 | 2 May 2011 | As highest probability circle | As highest probability circle | 3 | 21 (5) | 4·41 | 5·1 | 0·002 | ||||
| 2011/3 | 14 Nov. 2011 | 17 Oct. 2011 | As highest probability circle | As highest probability circle | 4 | 18 (5) | 4·00 | 2·8 | 0·048 | ||||
*
Percentage of the total population of the study region.
†
If different from the highest probability circle.
‡
If different from the initial largest circle and the highest probability circle.
§
After removal of household cases.