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. 2022 May 12;150:e100. doi: 10.1017/S0950268821002776

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© Cambridge University Press 2022

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.

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Fig. 5. — Outputs of an SEIR transmission model trained on confirmed cases between 10/01/2021 and 01/04/2021 for nine LTLAs in England. The model is run with and without importations introduced after the fit period. The 95% confidence intervals for the model with and without importations are shown in by the red and blue shaded areas, respectively. When importations are included, the model is able to predict the change in growth rates observed in Ealing, Harrow, Hillingdon, Hounslow and Slough. Increased growth rates in Bolton cannot be sufficiently explained by the importation model.