Table 2.
Projected numbers of hospitalized and total cholera cases in Haiti for 1 year after the start of the epidemic
| Projection method | Release date | MSPP surveillance data used | Projected hospitalizations (95% CI) | Projected total cases (95% CI) | Hospitalization rate | Attack rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical analogies | 25 Oct. 2010 | None | — | 105 047 (31 782–956 903) | — | 1·1 |
| Peruvian extrapolation | 29 Nov. 2010 | 4 weeks | 247 230 | 651 780 | 3·0% | 7·8 |
| Artibonite extrapolation | 29 Nov. 2010 | 31 days | 165 154 | 436 544 | 2·0% | 5·2 |
| Spatial-temporal epidemic model | 15 Dec. 2010 | 6 weeks | 175 671 (40 022–403 007) | 439 178 (72 620–827 520) | 1·7% | 4·3 |
| Spatial-temporal epidemic model | 28 Jan. 2011 | 11 weeks | 170 009 (148 907–238 973) | 425 023 (357 402–604 882) | 1·7% | 4·2 |
| Spatial-temporal epidemic model | 4 Mar. 2011 | 16 weeks | 162 664 (142 968–211 864) | 318 613 (301 237–409 140) | 1·6% | 3·1 |
| Observed data | — | 1 year | 256 130 | 474 561 | 2·6% | 4·8 |
MSPP, Haitian Ministère de la Santé Publique et de la Population.