Table 8.
Indirect effects of measles vaccine estimated from studies reporting all-cause mortality
| Study (first-named author, year of publication) | A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All-cause MR in measles vaccine- negative children | Study reported all-cause mortality reduction (all-cause MR in ITN arm)/ (all-cause MR in control arm) | All-cause deaths averted by intervention per 1000 child-yr [A*(1 – B)] | % 1–59 mo. deaths attributable to measles (year of LiST estimate) | Assumed measles deaths in control arm/ 1000 child-yr [A*D] | Assumed measles deaths averted by intervention/ 1000 child-yr [if E < C, E, else, C] | Assumed non-measles deaths averted by intervention/1000 child-yr [if E < C, C − F, else, none] | Non-measles mortality relative rate [(A*(1 – D) – G)/ (A*(1 – D))]a | |
| Cohort | ||||||||
| Aaby, 2006 [47] | NR | 0·47 (0·19–1·14) | NA | 22 (1998) | NA | NA | NA | 0·60 |
| Elguero, 2005 [48] | 6·74/1000 child-yr | 0·87 (0·57–1·30) | 0·88 | 9 (1997) | 0·61 | 0·61 | 0·27 | 0·96 |
| Lehmann, 2005 [44] | NR | 0·94 (0·48–1·84) | NA | 32 (1992) | NA | NA | NA | 1·38 |
| Breiman, 2004 [40] | NR | HR = 0·93 (0·65–1·34) | NA | 9 (1994) | NA | NA | NA | 1·02 |
| Nyarko, 2001 [50] | NA | 0·50 (0·40–0·64) | NA | 12 (1996) | NA | NA | NA | 0·57 |
| Kristensen, 2000 [43] | 39·5/1000 children | 0·48 (0·27–0·87) | 20·54 | 10 (1993) | 3·95 | 3·95 | 16·59 | 0·53 |
| Aaby, 1990 [46] | NR | 0·34 (0·17–0·68) | NA | 10 (1986) | NA | NA | NA | 0·38 |
| Aaby, 2003 [51]; Koenig, 1990 [53]; Clemens, 1988 [52] | 25·5/1000 children | 0·55 (0·46–0·66) | 11·48 | 2b | 0·51 | 0·48c | 10·99 | 0·56 |
| Case-control | ||||||||
| Kabir, 2003 [42]; Kumar, 2000 [49] | NR | 0·36 (0·23–0·56) | NA | 7 (1994) | NA | NA | NA | 0·39 |
| Velema, 1991 [45] | NR | 0·67 (0·39–1·18) | NA | 8 (1985) | NA | NA | NA | 0·73 |
| Holt, 1990 [41] | 66·3/1000 children | 0·16 (0·04–0·63) | 55·69 | 16 (1985) | 10·61 | 10·61 | 45·08 | 0·19 |
ITN, Insecticide-treated net; MR, mortality rate; NA, not applicable; NR, not reported.
a
The formula simplifies to 1 – (1 – B)/D.
b
Study reported estimate of % measles deaths.
c
Study reported measles-specific relative mortality reduction of 0·05 was used to calculate the measles deaths averted.