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Results of stochastic simulations using parameters from the review
| Probability of outbreak (%) | Mean attack rate (%) | Fold increase in outbreak duration | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operational – no long shedders | 36 | 45·8 | —* |
| Operational – with long shedders | 38 | 67·1 | 1·9 |
| Functional – no long shedders | 23 | 29·4 | 1·2 |
| Functional – with long shedders | 31 | 66·3 | 2·7 |
Set as baseline, column indicates fold increase over this value.
