Table 1.
Significant explanatory variables in the multivariable hurdle model
| Explanatory variable (Supplementary Material S2 abbreviation) | Time period (lags t in months if applicable) | Estimate (P value); hurdle model | Relative change (%) in approximated odds for the occurrence (zero part)*: increase in the standardized incidence ratio (negative binomial part)† when changing the respective variable by 1% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zero part | Negative binomial part | Zero part | Negative binomial part | ||
| Income per household (mean) (Income) | t | n.a. | −2·5 (<0·001) | n.a. | −2·5 |
| Agricultural area per total area (Agricultural_land) | t | n.a. | −6·1 (<0·001) | n.a. | −5·9 |
| Number of cases in previous month (ln transformed), (Cases_1month_ln) | t – 1 | 0·53 (<0·001) | 0·42 (<0·001) | 0·4 | 0·4 |
| Proportion of population working in agriculture (Agricultural_work_population) | t | n.a. | 20·6 (<0·001) | n.a. | 22·9 |
| Depth of snow cover on 15 April (Snowcover_april) | April | 0·019 (<0·001) | 0·018 (<0·001) | 0·01 | 0·02 |
| Monthly mean temperature in June (Temperature_June) | June | 0·19 (<0·001) | 0·24 (<0·001) | 0·1 | 0·2 |
| Monthly precipitation in June (Rainfall_June) | June | 0·0074 (<0·05) | 0·013 (<0·001) | 0·005 | 0·01 |
| Monthly mean temperature in May (Temperature_May) | May | 0·19 (<0·001) | 0·35 (<0·001) | 0·1 | 0·4 |
| Length of regulated water shore per total area (Reg_watershore) | t | 2·06 (<0·001) | n.a. | 1·5 | n.a. |
| Monthly precipitation in previous month (Rainfall_month_t_1) | t – 1 | 0·0048 (<0·05) | n.a. | 0·004 | n.a. |
| Hatch-year black grouse density (Hatch_year_grouse) | t | 0·14 (<0·001) | n.a. | 0·1 | n.a. |
| sin12 | n.a. | −8·7 (<0·001) | n.a. | −8·3 | |
| cos12 | n.a. | −2·3 (<0·001) | n.a. | −2·3 | |
| sin24 | n.a. | 0·20 (0·22) | n.a. | 0·2 | |
| cos24 | n.a. | 0·61 (<0·001) | n.a. | 0·6 | |
| sin36 | −0·19 (<0·05) | −0·34 (<0·001) | −0·1 | −0·3 | |
| cos36 | −0·098 (0·16) | −0·10 (0·13) | −0·07 | −0·1 | |
| sin60 | −0·13 (0·077) | n.a. | −0·09 | n.a. | |
| cos60 | 0·098 (0·18) | n.a. | 0·07 | n.a. | |
| sin72 | n.a. | 0·33 (<0·05) | n.a. | 0·3 | |
| cos72 | n.a. | 0·10 (0·37) | n.a. | 0·1 | |
| sin84 | −0·43 (<0·001) | −0·35 (<0·001) | −0·3 | −0·3 | |
| cos84 | 0·17 (<0·05) | −0·11 (0·36) | 0·1 | −0·1 | |
| July, month of notification (month2) | 0·66 (0·059) | n.a. | 0·5 | n.a. | |
| August, month of notification (month2) | 3·25 (<0·001) | n.a. | 2·4 | n.a. | |
| September, month of notification (month2) | 3·52 (<0·001) | n.a. | 2·6 | n.a. | |
| October, month of notification (month2) | 1·5 (<0·001) | n.a. | 1·1 | n.a. | |
| Linear trend, 1984–1995 | 2·72 (<0·001) | 2·32 (<0·001) | 2·0 | 2·3 | |
| Linear trend, 1995–2002 | 2·95 (<0·001) | 2·69 (<0·001) | 2·2 | 2·7 | |
| Linear trend, 2002–2009 | 2·07 (<0·001) | 2·5 (<0·001) | 1·5 | 2·5 | |
n.a., Not applicable.
*
exp(0·01 × βx/1·386) – 1.
†
exp(0·01 × βx) – 1.