Table 3.
The adjustment steps with the lowest MAPE and the percentage of decrease in the MAPE relative to the base case adjustment and the observed versus predicted at year 10
| Outcome | CMS | DCS | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Observed (%) | 95% CI (%) | Predicted (%) | AS | MAPE*, (%) | Change (%) | Observed (%) | 95% CI (%) | Predicted (%) | AS | MAPE* (%) | Change (%) | |
| Overall mortality | 40 | 37–42 | 38 | 3 | 20 | 48 | 26 | 24–27 | 35 | 2 | 65 | 8 |
| MI | 7 | 6–8 | 11 | BC | 77 | – | 3 | 2–3 | 11 | BC | 258 | – |
| CHF | 12 | 11–14 | 8 | 2 | 42 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 6 | BC | 11 | – |
| Stroke | 10 | 9–12 | 6 | 1 | 41 | 3 | 5 | 4–6 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 7 |
CMS Casale monferrato survey, DCS hoorn diabetes care system, CI confidence interval, AS adjustment step, MAPE mean absolute percentage error, MI myocardial infarction, CHF chronic heart failure, BC base case
*The lower values mean a better fit