Table 3. Associations for Each Decliner Group and Risk of Incident Dementia.

Characteristic	Dementia rate/1000 PY (95% CI)	Demographics, adjusted cause-specific HR (95% CI)a	P value	Demographics plus baseline performance, adjusted cause-specific HR (95% CI)b	P value
Global cognition (3MS)
No decline	0.6 (0.4-0.9)	1 [Reference]	NA	1 [Reference]	NA
Cognition only	8.2 (7.0-9.6)	9.7 (6.6-14.2)	<.001	7.1 (4.9-10.5)	<.001
Gait only	2.1 (1.5-3.1)	3.4 (2.1-5.5)	<.001	4.0 (2.5-6.6)	<.001
Dual decline	18.8 (15.8-22.3)	25.2 (17.5-37.8)	<.001	22.2 (15.0-32.9)	<.001
Memory (HVLT-R)
No decline	0.68 (0.47-1.0)	1 [Reference]	NA	1 [Reference]	NA
Cognition only	8.0 (6.8-9.3)	11.1 (7.5-16.5)	<.001	7.6 (5.1-11.4)	<.001
Gait only	2.0 (1.4-3.0)	3.1 (1.8-5.3)	<.001	3.8 (2.3-6.5)	<.001
Dual decline	18.3 (15.4-21.8)	29.1 (19.5-43.5)	<.001	24.9 (16.5-37.6)	<.001
Processing speed (SDMT)
No decline	2.6 (2.1-3.1)	1 [Reference]	NA	1 [Reference]	NA
Cognition only	4.1 (3.3-5.1)	1.5 (1.1-1.9)	.007	1.3 (1.0-1.7)	.06
Gait only	7.2 (5.9-8.9)	3.0 (2.3-4.0)	<.001	3.7 (2.8-5.0)	<.001
Dual decline	9.1 (7.1-11.6)	3.7 (2.8-4.9)	<.001	4.3 (3.2-5.8)	<.001
Verbal fluency (COWAT-F)
No decline	2.8 (2.3-3.4)	1 [Reference]	NA	1 [Reference]	NA
Cognition only	4.7 (3.8-5.8)	1.4 (1.1-1.9)	.01	1.2 (0.9-1.6)	.14
Gait only	8.5 (7.0-10.3)	3.0 (2.3-4.0)	<.001	4.1 (3.1-5.4)	<.001
Dual decline	12.4 (9.9-15.4)	3.8 (2.9-5.1)	<.001	4.7 (3.5-6.3)	<.001

Abbreviations: 3MS, Modified Mini-Mental State examination; COWAT-F, Controlled Oral Word Association Test (single letter); HR, hazard ratio; HVLT-R, Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised; PY, person-years; SDMT, Symbol Digit Modalities.

^a Adjusted for age at baseline, sex, years of education (<9, 9-11, 12, 13-15, 16, or 17-21 years) and country (Australia or US).

^b Additional adjustment for baseline gait speed and baseline cognitive scores.