Table 2.
Projected estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-related deaths in 2022, and in different scenarios
|
Estimated burden in 2022 (95% CI) |
Scenario 1: Variant 200% more severe (95% CI) |
Scenario 2: Variant 200% more reinfectious (95% CI) |
Scenario 3: Variant 200% more transmissible (95% CI) |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infections | Deaths | Infections | Deaths | Infections | Deaths | Infections | Deaths | |
| Algeria | 6 063 865 (5 737 078–6 390 652) | 835 (450–1368) | 6 069 547 (5 741 186–6 397 908) | 2832 (1638–4386) | 6 115 322 (5 796 038–6 434 620) | 1040 (630–1589) | 6 066 428 (5 702 001–6 430 855) | 1006 (634–1510) |
| Angola | 4 568 793 (4 255 882–4 881 852) | 681 (480–1154) | 4 577 415 (4 264 294–4 890 684) | 1731 (1026–3076) | 4 632 742 (4 312 479–4 953 196) | 644 (407–1113) | 4 607 724 (4 393 896–4 821 705) | 592 (385–1052) |
| Benin | 1 714 418 (1 638 510–1 790 394) | 64 (55–133) | 1 716 620 (1 640 692–1 792 621) | 208 (165–335) | 1 729 583 (1 656 343–1 802 877) | 88 (75–157) | 1 725 139 (1 659 111–1 791 214) | 48 (43–96) |
| Botswana | 181 027 (164 821–197 638) | 98 (66–178) | 180 154 (163 933–197 145) | 272 (179–511) | 189 909 (171 194–209 929) | 116 (83–207) | 188 103 (175 895–200 685) | 108 (74–185) |
| Burkina Faso | 3 251 906 (3 071 033–3 432 807) | 260 (192–561) | 3 253 256 (3 077 248–3 429 285) | 959 (498–2022) | 3 277 264 (3 096 985–3 457 567) | 240 (184–568) | 3 269 972 (3 139 617–3 400 336) | 300 (211–662) |
| Burundi | 1 891 938 (1 780 973–2 003 044) | 14 (14–32) | 1 894 635 (1 783 320–2 006 430) | 14 (13–51) | 1 914 881 (1 808 635–2 021 347) | 7 (7–26) | 1 906 029 (1 829 896–1 982 303) | 7 (7–22) |
| Cameroon | 4 144 864 (3 949 913–4 340 193) | 349 (206–567) | 4 135 825 (3 941 308–4 330 601) | 932 (500–1525) | 4 178 293 (3 987 708–4 369 373) | 367 (213–610) | 4 143 931 (3 904 221–4 384 073) | 362 (214–559) |
| Cape Verde | 43 726 (41 633–45 825) | 11 (9–21) | 43 818 (41 725–45 919) | 32 (24–54) | 43 291 (41 344–45 239) | 11 (10–20) | 43 668 (41 677–45 659) | 13 (11–23) |
| Central African Republic | 681 717 (644 433–719 046) | 29 (25–89) | 682 709 (645 184–720 287) | 143 (113–274) | 703 495 (667 286–739 751) | 76 (68–144) | 700 573 (669 450–731 762) | 29 (25–91) |
| Chad | 2 531 166 (2 388 282–2 674 081) | 310 (251–930) | 2 553 767 (2 410 932–2 696 622) | 1342 (923–2646) | 2 530 088 (2 391 234–2 668 984) | 516 (400–1197) | 2 638 252 (2 524 042–2 752 489) | 206 (161–804) |
| Comoros | 97 713 (93 709–101 736) | 7 (7–19) | 97 791 (93 764–101 834) | 35 (27–65) | 98 864 (94 845–102 897) | 4 (3–17) | 98 734 (94 795–102 706) | 7 (7–18) |
| Congo (Brazzaville) | 787 607 (756 982–818 246) | 86 (71–138) | 787 142 (756 498–817 800) | 207 (135–335) | 795 497 (765 774–825 260) | 68 (52–128) | 788 564 (750 315–826 852) | 54 (42–116) |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 3 883 627 (3 719 225–4 048 058) | 239 (192–379) | 3 880 957 (3 716 764–4 045 164) | 601 (360–964) | 3 917 173 (3 757 886–4 076 497) | 233 (164–386) | 3 879 678 (3 672 068–4 087 299) | 220 (169–362) |
| DR Congo | 14 412 681 (13 751 804–15 073 597) | 1349 (819–2255) | 14 415 247 (13 753 756–15 076 755) | 3983 (2410–6489) | 14 573 309 (13 929 097–15 217 564) | 1517 (1009–2446) | 14 434 067 (13 607 890–15 260 246) | 1496 (1065–2409) |
| Equatorial Guinea | 192 559 (183 393–201 821) | 12 (10–27) | 192 438 (183 289–201 674) | 72 (56–112) | 193 606 (185 222–202 068) | 17 (15–33) | 192 742 (185 133–200 423) | 19 (16–34) |
| Eritrea | 556 208 (522 285–590 141) | 67 (58–141) | 554 858 (520 924–588 815) | 192 (139–349) | 559 528 (525 286–593 807) | 67 (59–121) | 562 015 (541 169–582 866) | 75 (69–134) |
| Eswatini | 125 274 (119 573–131 206) | 48 (33–81) | 124 821 (119 091–130 618) | 149 (95–235) | 126 752 (121 323–132 267) | 52 (38–86) | 124 792 (117 960–131 765) | 52 (37–82) |
| Ethiopia | 17 757 737 (17 064 546–18 451 191) | 1919 (1154–3017) | 17 706 550 (17 012 847–18 400 914) | 5369 (3035–8687) | 17 898 442 (17 234 376–18 563 074) | 1693 (861–2901) | 17 743 573 (16 882 514–18 604 919) | 1396 (619–2553) |
| Gabon | 321 296 (305 487–337 125) | 16 (13–29) | 321 920 (305 944–337 948) | 52 (38–81) | 323 368 (308 080–338 694) | 12 (10–24) | 319 295 (300 255–338 415) | 18 (15–30) |
| The Gambia | 330 947 (305 952–356 008) | 66 (55–117) | 334 398 (309 480–359 368) | 206 (132–363) | 338 951 (314 133–363 877) | 66 (55–127) | 340 801 (319 944–361 680) | 61 (49–124) |
| Ghana | 4 562 751 (4 361 585–4 763 931) | 219 (152–352) | 4 572 633 (4 369 517–4 775 762) | 725 (422–1 120) | 4 598 596 (4 404 521–4 792 789) | 216 (113–390) | 4 567 447 (4 312 869–4 822 119) | 219 (144–353) |
| Guinea | 1 936 995 (1 858 763–2 015 236) | 42 (34–133) | 1 935 965 (1 857 662–2 014 276) | 302 (204–539) | 1 954 943 (1 878 788–2 031 098) | 134 (107–235) | 1 943 343 (1 857 215–2 029 479) | 91 (72–204) |
| Guinea-Bissau | 309 146 (296 036–322 265) | 27 (24–77) | 308 766 (295 713–321 844) | 120 (91–234) | 311 722 (298 708–324 747) | 44 (38–83) | 311 232 (298 657–323 825) | 27 (22–80) |
| Kenya | 7 849 880 (7 541 715–8 158 136) | 721 (437–1279) | 7 861 122 (7 553 893–8 168 453) | 2655 (1552–4277) | 7 940 638 (7 643 019–8 238 799) | 721 (377–1309) | 7 890 514 (7 513 323–8 267 786) | 853 (505–1356) |
| Lesotho | 213 186 (197 120–229 487) | 22 (16–40) | 214 211 (197 901–230 851) | 72 (45–121) | 216 732 (201 106–232 592) | 22 (15–43) | 216 061 (205 066–227 409) | 28 (23–45) |
| Liberia | 639 226 (607 052–671 424) | 126 (106–238) | 639 704 (607 557–671 865) | 342 (246–642) | 642 738 (610 348–675 153) | 103 (85–220) | 648 082 (620 791–675 387) | 80 (71–191) |
| Madagascar | 4 363 475 (4 148 954–4 578 207) | 355 (192–768) | 4 376 990 (4 160 951–4 593 526) | 1115 (560–2216) | 4 370 389 (4 160 310–4 580 686) | 424 (233–907) | 4 343 938 (4 154 190–4 533 864) | 326 (162–739) |
| Malawi | 2 928 205 (2 803 593–3 053 231) | 495 (325–873) | 2 935 579 (2 811 257–3 060 302) | 1649 (986–2764) | 2 956 083 (2 834 755–3 077 737) | 426 (236–864) | 2 949 544 (2 835 020–3 064 464) | 641 (450–1019) |
| Mali | 3 194 175 (3 056 324–3 332 027) | 461 (339–845) | 3 197 760 (3 059 591–3 335 929) | 1846 (1146–2814) | 3 222 083 (3 089 140–3 355 035) | 684 (479–1102) | 3 198 446 (3 021 411–3 375 481) | 632 (456–1039) |
| Mauritania | 593 131 (568 589–617 736) | 87 (69–142) | 592 807 (568 260–617 417) | 237 (173–391) | 598 411 (574 215–622 703) | 58 (41–113) | 593 109 (568 879–617 357) | 53 (43–90) |
| Mauritius | 55 415 (51 156–59 966) | 18 (15–32) | 54 137 (50 042–58 559) | 57 (46–96) | 55 747 (51 228–60 664) | 16 (14–31) | 53 774 (49 864–57 857) | 21 (19–34) |
| Mozambique | 4 014 053 (3 800 801–4 227 899) | 253 (167–423) | 4 020 640 (3 807 659–4 234 038) | 699 (403–1180) | 4 078 650 (3 874 142–4 283 996) | 262 (162–445) | 4 047 865 (3 889 713–4 206 393) | 253 (159–413) |
| Namibia | 332 384 (314 463–351 200) | 129 (73–239) | 329 303 (311 637–347 799) | 452 (275–789) | 338 569 (321 417–356 061) | 135 (76–247) | 341 839 (324 439–359 873) | 119 (65–234) |
| Niger | 3 774 224 (3 614 921–3 933 531) | 816 (662–1496) | 3 772 178 (3 612 116–3 932 248) | 3206 (2505–4821) | 3 809 670 (3 656 178–3 963 167) | 874 (704–1628) | 3 777 538 (3 576 262–3 978 823) | 699 (582–1481) |
| Nigeria | 32 331 254 (30 561 690–34 100 861) | 2188 (1128–3654) | 32 349 490 (30 579 284–34 119 881) | 5711 (2394–10 118) | 32 683 499 (30 940 986–34 426 123) | 2590 (1340–4345) | 32 357 963 (30 406 517–34 309 482) | 2252 (1159–3673) |
| Rwanda | 1 190 418 (1 140 919–1 240 072) | 59 (44–108) | 1 191 179 (1 142 019–1 240 506) | 171 (107–318) | 1 206 246 (1 158 811–1 253 817) | 60 (43–117) | 1 198 195 (1 148 258–1 248 267) | 54 (40–106) |
| São Tomé and Príncipe | 26 228 (25 194–27 271) | 3 (3–8) | 26 260 (25 214–27 311) | 3 (3–12) | 26 483 (25 465–27 514) | 6 (5–10) | 26 350 (25 255–27 453) | 2 (2–7) |
| Senegal | 2 514 720 (2 406 229–2 623 232) | 272 (157–474) | 2 519 149 (2 410 124–2 628 174) | 738 (407–1345) | 2 544 614 (2 440 850–2 648 435) | 190 (101–412) | 2 523 082 (2 418 222–2 627 977) | 276 (169–478) |
| Seychelles | 946 (946–946) | 0 (0–0) | 946 (946–946) | 0 (0–0) | 983 (983–983) | 0 (0–0) | 1032 (1032–1032) | 0 (0–0) |
| Sierra Leone | 1 168 068 (1 103 950–1 232 204) | 40 (36–152) | 1 167 413 (1 102 952–1 231 890) | 159 (123–401) | 1 178 840 (1 117 022–1 240 676) | 40 (34–184) | 1 201 541 (1 146 956–1 256 142) | 99 (90–221) |
| South Africa | 6 537 582 (6 106 899–6 974 234) | 2960 (1586–4930) | 6 430 195 (6 016 260–6 847 505) | 9002 (4998–14 786) | 6 403 026 (6 003 741–6 803 536) | 2930 (1564–4994) | 6 434 731 (6 019 709–6 851 543) | 3025 (1707–4961) |
| South Sudan | 1 744 556 (1 679 295–1 809 832) | 102 (93–183) | 1 745 640 (1 680 275–1 811 011) | 179 (147–365) | 1 759 629 (1 697 264–1 822 017) | 64 (57–150) | 1 749 861 (1 667 785–1 831 966) | 64 (56–153) |
| Tanzania | 9 450 843 (8 382 143–10 522 204) | 4724 (3911–7742) | 9 436 837 (8 396 249–10 480 452) | 15 993 (13 100–26 665) | 9 544 827 (8 527 240–10 567 140) | 5201 (4283–9066) | 9 490 155 (9 007 302–9 975 201) | 4768 (3989–7441) |
| Togo | 1 153 943 (1 110 440–1 197 480) | 49 (45–91) | 1 156 413 (1 112 948–1 199 893) | 130 (97–217) | 1 167 764 (1 126 297–1 209 256) | 54 (45–96) | 1 158 396 (1 105 618–1 211 185) | 67 (60–107) |
| Uganda | 7 114 151 (6 792 989–7 435 582) | 1292 (800–2192) | 7 058 092 (6 736 492–7 379 868) | 3549 (2163–6175) | 7 196 341 (6 886 425–7 506 514) | 1376 (928–2321) | 7 116 621 (6 815 964–7 417 498) | 1140 (689–2079) |
| Zambia | 2 809 320 (2 689 420–2 930 275) | 275 (160–496) | 2 805 923 (2 686 055–2 926 588) | 896 (538–1545) | 2 840 772 (2 722 028–2 960 039) | 281 (171–506) | 2 814 294 (2 698 678–2 930 741) | 280 (174–505) |
| Zimbabwe | 1 828 189 (1 748 626–1 908 639) | 368 (238–630) | 1 831 479 (1 752 307–1 911 813) | 1149 (748–1901) | 1 841 555 (1 762 436–1 921 370) | 369 (250–641) | 1 821 533 (1 736 199–1 907 290) | 420 (285–683) |
| All countries | 166 175 533 (157 464 380–174 900 821) | 22 563 (14 970–38 831) | 166 054 679 (157 386 115–174 736 154) | 70 489 (44 987–118 412) | 167 629 908 (159 171 709–176 100 555) | 24 111 (15 845–42 361) | 166 550 566 (157 936 016–175 173 116) | 22 562 (15 045–38 557) |