Table 1.

Model fit assessment based on discrimination and classification capacities respect to vector and disease records of the same period.

	Model	AUC	FCT	Sens.	Spec.	CCR	TSS	Underp.	Overp.
Late 20th century	Disease	0.971	0.5	0.959	0.905	0.905	0.864	0.001	0.895
			0.2	0.982	0.873	0.875	0.855	0.000	0.917
	Vectors	0.919	0.5	0.946	0.705	0.717	0.651	0.004	0.849
			0.2	0.991	0.591	0.612	0.582	0.001	0.881
	Transmission risk	0.962	0.5	0.922	0.909	0.909	0.831	0.001	0.895
			0.2	0.982	0.876	0.877	0.858	0.000	0.915
Early 21st century	Disease	0.963	0.5	0.961	0.872	0.874	0.833	0.001	0.832
			0.2	0.988	0.826	0.830	0.814	0.000	0.868
	Vectors	0.928	0.5	0.947	0.740	0.761	0.687	0.008	0.715
			0.2	0.994	0.576	0.618	0.570	0.001	0.796
	Transmission risk	0.951	0.5	0.876	0.889	0.889	0.765	0.004	0.825
			0.2	0.980	0.833	0.837	0.813	0.001	0.864
Early 21st century (enhanced model)	Disease	0.964	0.5	0.968	0.872	0.875	0.840	0.001	0.831
			0.2	0.994	0.833	0.837	0.827	0.000	0.863
	Vectors	0.932	0.5	0.958	0.752	0.772	0.710	0.006	0.704
			0.2	0.991	0.616	0.653	0.607	0.002	0.780
	Transmission risk	0.954	0.5	0.878	0.894	0.894	0.772	0.004	0.818
			0.2	0.992	0.843	0.847	0.835	0.000	0.855

AUC area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, FCT favourability classification threshold, Sens. sensitivity, Spec. specificity, CCR correct classification rate, TSS true skill statistic, Underp. underprediction rate, Overp. overprediction rate.