TABLE 1.
Model parameters: baseline values, ranges, and distributions for sensitivity analysis.
| Parameters | Baseline Value | Range | Reference | Distribution | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum | Maximum | ||||
| Survival | |||||
| Weibull survival model of OS of GP | Scale = 0.0004758 | — | — | (6, 7) | — |
| Weibull survival model of PFS of GP | Shape = 2.3,014,344 | — | — | — | |
| Scale = 0.011275 | |||||
| Shape = 1.991,263 | |||||
| Weibull survival model of OS of TGP | Scale = 0.0016292 | — | — | (6) | — |
| Weibull survival model of PFS of TGP | Shape = 1.6,248,844 | — | — | — | |
| Scale = 0.010542 | |||||
| Shape = 1.663,938 | |||||
| Weibull survival model of OS of CGP | Scale = 0.005613 | — | — | (7) | — |
| Weibull survival model of PFS of CGP | Shape = 1.319,492 | — | — | — | |
| Scale = 0.011551 | |||||
| Shape = 1.762,665 | |||||
| Risk for main AEs in GP group | |||||
| Risk of neutropenia | 0.471 | 0.377 | 0.565 | (6, 7) | Beta |
| Risk of anemia | 0.412 | 0.330 | 0.494 | (6, 7) | Beta |
| Risk of thrombocytopenia | 0.342 | 0.274 | 0.410 | (6, 7) | Beta |
| Risk of leucopenia | 0.636 | 0.509 | 0.763 | (6, 7) | Beta |
| Risk of lymphopenia | 0.129 | 0.103 | 0.155 | (6, 7) | Beta |
| Risk for main AEs in TGP group | |||||
| Risk of leucopenia | 0.616 | 0.493 | 0.739 | (6) | Beta |
| Risk of neutropenia | 0.575 | 0.460 | 0.690 | (6) | Beta |
| Risk of anemia | 0.473 | 0.378 | 0.568 | (6) | Beta |
| Risk of thrombocytopenia | 0.329 | 0.263 | 0.395 | (6) | Beta |
| Risk of lymphopenia | 0.089 | 0.071 | 0.107 | (6) | Beta |
| Risk of hyponatremia | 0.089 | 0.071 | 0.107 | (6) | Beta |
| Risk of hypokalemia | 0.068 | 0.054 | 0.082 | (6) | Beta |
| Risk of pneumonia | 0.103 | 0.082 | 0.124 | (6) | Beta |
| Risk for main AEs in CGP group | |||||
| Risk of neutropenia | 0.24 | 0.19 | 0.29 | (7) | Beta |
| Risk of anemia | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.11 | (7) | Beta |
| Risk of thrombocytopenia | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.07 | (7) | Beta |
| Risk of leucopenia | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.07 | (7) | Beta |
| Risk of neutrophil count decreased | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.07 | (7) | Beta |
| Risk of febrile neutropenia | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.07 | (7) | Beta |
| Risk of hyponatraemia | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.07 | (7) | Beta |
| Utility and disutility | |||||
| Utility PFS in first-line treatment | 0.65 | 0.520 | 0.780 | (16) | Beta |
| Utility PD | 0.52 | 0.416 | 0.624 | (16) | Beta |
| AEs disutility for GP | 0.0069 | 0.0055 | 0.0083 | (17) | Beta |
| AEs disutility for TGP or CGP | 0.0070 | 0.0056 | 0.0084 | (17) | Beta |
| Drug cost, $/per cycle | |||||
| Toripalimab | 659.4 | 527.52 | 791.28 | Local Charge | Gamma |
| Camrelizumab | 888.3 | 710.64 | 1,065.96 | Local Charge | Gamma |
| Gemcitabine | 860.9 | 688.72 | 1,033.08 | Local Charge | Gamma |
| Cisplatin | 332.1 | 265.68 | 398.52 | Local Charge | Gamma |
| Capecitabine | 128.0 | 102.40 | 153.60 | Local Charge | Gamma |
| Cost of AEs, $ | |||||
| GP | 1,940 | 1,552 | 2,328 | (18, 21–23) | Gamma |
| TGP | 1,980 | 1,584 | 2,367 | (18, 21–23) | Gamma |
| CGP | 2,246 | 1,797 | 2,695 | (18, 21–23) | Gamma |
| Laboratory per cycle | 216.4 | 173.12 | 259.68 | (19) | Gamma |
| Tumor imaging per cycle | 231.1 | 184.80 | 277.20 | (19) | Gamma |
| Administration per cycle | 106.2 | 84.96 | 127.44 | (18) | Gamma |
| Best supportive care per cycle | 157.6 | 126.08 | 189.12 | (20) | Gamma |
| Body surface area (meters2) | 1.72 | 1.38 | 2.06 | (13) | Gamma |
| Discount rate | 0.03 | — | — | (11) | — |
Abbreviation; OS, overall survival; PFS, progression-free survival; GP, gemcitabine and cisplatin; TGP, toripalimab plus gemcitabine and cisplatin; CGP, camrelizumab plus gemcitabine and cisplatin; AEs, adverse events.