Table 2.
Forecasting results of the GM (1,1) model in each STD
| Years | HIV infection | Syphilis | Gonorrhea | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual incidence (1/100,000) | Predictive incidence (1/100,000) | APE (%) | Actual incidence (1/100,000) | Predictive incidence (1/100,000) | APE (%) | Actual incidence (1/100,000) | Predictive incidence (1/100,000) | APE (%) | |
| 2013 | 3.12 | – | – | 30.04 | – | – | 7.36 | – | – |
| 2014 | 3.33 | 3.37 | 1.20 | 30.93 | 30.59 | 1.10 | 7.05 | 7.02 | 0.43 |
| 2015 | 3.69 | 3.64 | 1.36 | 31.85 | 31.75 | 0.31 | 7.36 | 7.69 | 4.48 |
| 2016 | 3.97 | 3.93 | 1.01 | 31.97 | 32.94 | 3.03 | 8.39 | 8.41 | 0.24 |
| 2017 | 4.14 | 4.24 | 2.42 | 34.49 | 34.18 | 0.90 | 10.06 | 9.20 | 8.55 |
| 2018 | 4.62 | 4.58 | 0.87 | 35.63 | 35.47 | 0.45 | 9.59 | 10.07 | 5.01 |
| MAPE (%) | 1.37 | 1.16 | 3.74 | ||||||
| Po (%) | 98.63 | 98.84 | 96.26 | ||||||
| C | 0.012 | 0.052 | 0.132 | ||||||
| P | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| 2019 | 5.1 | 4.95 | 2.94 | 38.37 | 36.81 | 4.07 | 8.45 | 11.02 | 30.41 |
| 2020 | 4.43 | 5.34 | 20.54 | 33.08 | 38.19 | 15.45 | 7.49 | 12.05 | 60.88 |
| 2021 | – | 5.77 | – | – | 39.64 | – | – | 13.19 | – |