Table 2.

Priors for the intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of the population dynamic as used in the state-space model of Anopheles funestus and the estimated posteriors mean and 95% credible intervals

Parameter		Prior distribution				Posterior distribution
Notation	Description	Type	Source	Mean	sd	Mean	95-percentiles
${\beta }_1$	Linear coefficient for rainfall on larvae survival	Gamma	Uninformative prior	0.1	0.05	0.01681	[0.00604, 0.0308]
${\beta }_2$	Density dependent coefficient for larvae on larvae survival	Gamma	Uninformative prior	0.5	0.7	1.0283e−4	[1.0e−4, 1.1205e−4]
${\beta }_3$	Coefficient of interaction between larvae and rainfall on larvae survival	Gamma	Uninformative prior	0.9	0.1	0.9601	[0.80810, 0.99999]
${\beta }_4$	Linear coefficient for temperature on larvae survival	Gamma	Uninformative prior	1	0.316	0.487	[0.203, 0.806]
${\beta }_5$	Quadratic coefficient for temperature on larvae survival		A function of ${\beta }_4$	${\beta }_5=\frac{{\beta }_4}{2\ast \rho }$		− 0.00902	[− 0.01492, − 0.00376]
$C_1$	Linear coefficient for temperature on larvae development period	Gamma	Uninformative prior	0.001	0.001	5.362e−4	[2.51e−8, 2.311e−3]
${\phi }_1$	Linear coefficient for temperature on unfed, survival	Gamma	Uninformative prior	1	0.316	0.074	[0.068, 0.081]
${\phi }_2$	Quadratic coefficient for temperature on unfed survival	Gamma	A function of ${\phi }_1$	${\phi }_2=\frac{{\phi }_1}{2\ast \rho }$		− 1.378e−3	[− 1.50e−3, − 1.26e-3]
${\theta }_1$	Linear coefficient for temperature on bloodfed survival	Gamma	Uninformative prior	1	0.316	0.074	[0.068, 0.081]
${\theta }_2$	Quadratic coefficient for temperature on bloodfed survival	Gamma	A function of ${\theta }_1$	${\theta }_2=\frac{{\theta }_1}{2\ast \rho }$		− 1.378e−3	[− 1.50e−3, − 1.26e-3]
${\alpha }_1$	Linear coefficient for temperature on gravid survival	Gamma	Uninformative prior	1	0.316	0.074	[0.068, 0.081]
${\alpha }_2$	Quadratic coefficient for temperature on gravid survival	Gamma	A function of ${\alpha }_1$	${\alpha }_2=\frac{{\alpha }_1}{2\ast \rho }$		− 1.378e−3	[− 1.50e−3, − 1.26e−3]