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. 2022 Jun 3;13:3106. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-30897-1

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 4 — a Under the scenario of vaccination and COVID-19 transmission by 25 October 2021, required changes of NPI stringency index to contain COVID-19 ( $R_{t} < 1$ ). The negative change means the degree of NPI relaxation, compared to the stringency on 25 October 2021. b The comparison between the estimated requirement of changes in NPI stringency index presented in (a) and the output of the openness risk (from 0 to 1) - an indicator modified from the OxCGRT’s approach²⁵. A higher openness risk ( > 0.5) means an increasing likelihood of COVID-19 resurgence, and vice versa. Countries in Group 1 (increasing NPI stringency) and Group 2 (relaxing NPIs) mean that they have consistent findings between two indicators. Groups 3 and 4 mean that the two indicators have conflicting results and extra evidence might be needed.