Table 1.

Variables considered to be covariates in our Bayesian model to extrapolate COVID-19 hospitalizations for all 50 US states with stratification and source.

Variables	Stratified by	Source
Laboratory surveillance: SARS-CoV-2 % positive using rt-PCRa tests	Month, state, age	Commercial lab and public health lab data
Vital records death: % of all-cause deaths that were coded as COVID-19 deaths	Month, state, age	National Center for Health Statistics National Vital Surveillance System
Hospital capacity: % COVID patients out of all inpatients, % ICUb occupied out of all ICU beds	Month, state	HHSc Protect/National Center for Health Statistics
Race/ethnicity: % American Indian, % Black, % racial minorityd	State, age	National Center for Health Statistics/National Vital Statistics System
Chronic conditions/diseases: % obesity, % heart disease, % COPDe, % Diabetes, % CKDf, % asthma	State	CDCg MMWRh Stacks/Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System

^art-PCR: reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction.

^bICU: intensive care unit

^cHHS: Department of Health and Human Services.

^dRacial minority was defined as non-White and non-Hispanic.

^eCOPD: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

^fCKD: chronic kidney disease.

^gCDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

^hMMWR: Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.