Fig. 1.

Comparison of the performance of individual models over the training period at the national and regional levels, by prediction horizon, for hospital admissions. (A) RMSE in metropolitan France. (B) RMSE by region. (C) Mean WIS in metropolitan France. (D) WIS by region. Models: Const2, exponential growth model with constant growth rate (2 d window); Const7, exponential growth model with constant growth rate (7 d window); ARIMA1, autoregressive integrated moving average model; PL, exponential growth model with piecewise linear growth rate; GAM1, generalized additive model of hospital admissions; ARDL, autoregressive distributed lag model; MLR, multiple linear regression model; ARIMA2, multiple linear regression model with ARIMA error; GAM2, generalized additive model of the growth rate; RF, random forest model; BRT, boosted regression tree model.