Table 2.

IMF Programme conditions and poverty in developing countries

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
IMF conditions
All conditions	0.012***
	(0.004)
Stabilisation conditions		0.377		− 0.069
		(0.441)		(0.049)
Structural conditions			0.028***	0.032***
			(0.005)	(0.011)
IMF programme	0.080***	0.069	0.094***	0.071**
	(0.018)	(0.082)	(0.017)	(0.031)
Economic controls
GDP (logged)	− 0.291***	0.387	− 0.352***	− 0.576***
	(0.036)	(0.919)	(0.033)	(0.076)
Hyperinflation	0.130***	0.292	0.112***	0.083
	(0.039)	(0.284)	(0.037)	(0.066)
Deflation	− 0.020	− 0.302	0.001	0.094
	(0.033)	(0.397)	(0.031)	(0.058)
Natural resources	0.001	0.054	− 0.001	− 0.019***
	(0.002)	(0.069)	(0.003)	(0.006)
Trade	0.000	− 0.003	0.000	0.001
	(0.001)	(0.005)	(0.001)	(0.001)
Capital inflows	0.000	− 0.002	0.001	0.001
	(0.001)	(0.004)	(0.001)	(0.001)
Political controls
Polity 5	0.009***	0.015	0.008***	0.004
	(0.003)	(0.014)	(0.003)	(0.005)
Left executive	0.038*	0.182	0.024	− 0.026
	(0.023)	(0.216)	(0.021)	(0.038)
Population growth	− 0.013	0.119	− 0.021	− 0.051*
	(0.015)	(0.189)	(0.015)	(0.028)
Urban population	− 0.017***	− 0.075	− 0.012***	0.006
	(0.004)	(0.079)	(0.004)	(0.007)
Life expectancy (logged)	1.173***	1.345	1.262***	1.018**
	(0.245)	(1.019)	(0.228)	(0.406)
Constant	5.946***	− 8.971	6.836***	12.694***
	(0.927)	(19.387)	(0.839)	(1.970)
Instruments
Ln(IMF Liquid)* CondProb	2.671***
(All agreements)	(0.492)
Ln(IMF Liquid)* CondProb		1.153**		1.558***
(Agreements w/stab. cond.)		(0.429)		(0.499)
Ln(IMF Liquid)* CondProb			2.046***	1.928***
(Agreements w/struct. cond.)			(0.409)	(0.462)
Observations	1,716	1,716	1,716	1,716
Number of countries	81	81	81	81
Weak identification F test	11.22***	12.01***	16.44***	18.39***
Kleibergen–Paap underidentification test	18.27***	14.21***	14.87***	11.61***

Dependent variable: poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line (logged)

All control variables lagged by 1 year. All regressions include country, and year fixed effects and bootstrapped standard errors

*p < .1; **p < .05; ***p < .01