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. 2022 Jun 8;13:3172. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-30747-0

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 7 — The four scenarios include the Carbon neutrality (CN2050) scenario, Global Warming of 2.0 ^∘C (GM2.0) scenario, Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario and Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. The electricity supply cost is the average cost the power system must pay to supply per kWh of load demand. The marginal carbon price is the increased power system cost per tonne of carbon reduction based on the emission target each year. From the perspective of an optimization problem, the marginal carbon prices are the shadow prices of carbon emission constraints and can be obtained directly by solving the GTEP model. Their calculation does not need a reference case. The marginal carbon price in the BAU scenario is zero because no carbon emission constraints are considered. The number between each pair of curves denotes the average carbon mitigation cost per tonne between the more stringent scenario and the less stringent one. This value is numerically equal to the ratio of the difference in the total costs of the two scenarios and the difference between the carbon emission budget. The calculation methods are detailed in Supplementary Note 3.